Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:56Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - Macro: The six - department joint special rectification action on automotive industry network chaos, the expected Fed rate cuts, potential G7 tariff pressure on China and India, and the Trump tariff appeal case all bring information disturbances. The anti - involution policy causes the market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The rise in coal prices supports the rebound of alloys. China's August PPI decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - Supply and Demand: Production has been on an upward trend since mid - May. After the previous price increase, inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons, and the downstream hot metal production dropped significantly due to parade - related production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend. - Strategy: The silicon - manganese market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5800 - 6000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Macro: The six - department joint action focuses on rectifying illegal profit - making, exaggerated and false publicity, and malicious slander in the automotive industry. China's August PPI declined by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025. The US may pressure the G7 to impose tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil, and the US Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff appeal case in early November [6]. - Overseas: The Fed will announce interest rate decisions on September 17th, October 29th, and December 10th. The UK's Financial Times reported that the US will pressure the G7 to impose tariffs on China and India for buying Russian oil, and the US Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff appeal case in early November [6]. - Supply and Demand: Production has been rising since mid - May. Inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons, and hot metal production dropped significantly due to parade - related production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - Strategy: The silicon - manganese market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5800 - 6000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of September 12th, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 567,000 lots, a decrease of 3730 lots week - on - week. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 40, an increase of 2 points week - on - week. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 61,440, a decrease of 1420 week - on - week. The price difference between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron January contracts was 258, a decrease of 32 points week - on - week [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of September 12th, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was - 152 yuan/ton, an increase of 92 points week - on - week [24]. 3. Industrial Chain - Production: The national average daily output of silicon - manganese was 30,590 tons, an increase of 185 tons. The demand for silicon - manganese in the five major steel types was 122,314 tons, a decrease of 1.09% week - on - week. The national silicon - manganese output was 214,130 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week. Production has generally been on the rise since mid - May [27]. - Inventory: As of September 11th, the national silicon - manganese inventory was 166,800 tons, an increase of 6300 tons week - on - week [32]. - Upstream: As of September 12th, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree, an increase of 0.4 yuan/ton - degree. As of September 8th, the electricity price for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron in Ningxia was 0.40 yuan/kWh, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kWh; in Inner Mongolia, it was 0.42 yuan/kWh, unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore was 443.20 million tons, an increase of 1.80 million tons week - on - week. The global shipment volume of South African manganese ore decreased by 1.52% week - on - week, that of Australian manganese ore increased by 24.53% week - on - week, and that of Gabonese manganese ore decreased by 5.06% week - on - week. The global shipment volume of Ghanaian manganese ore was 0 tons [38][42]. - Profit: On September 12th, the spot production cost in the northern region was 5840 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in the southern region, it was 6220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in the southern region, it was - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [45]. - Downstream: The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.55 million tons, an increase of 11.71 million tons week - on - week and 17.17 million tons year - on - year. The southern steel tender price decreased month - on - month, and manufacturers face greater production pressure. The northern market price is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the southern market price is 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton [49].