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贵金属日报-20250912
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-12 10:50

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] 2) Core View of the Report - After the US announced that the August CPI annual rate of 2.9% and the core CPI annual rate of 3.1% were in line with market expectations, and the weekly initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000, reaching the highest level in 4 years, far higher than the expected 235,000 and the previous value, further verifying the weak employment situation. The market has fully priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Precious metals may remain strong before this month's meeting, and long positions should be held, but there is a risk of increased volatility after continuous rises [1] 3) Other Key Points - The European Central Bank announced that the eurozone's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively. The inflation rate has reached the 2% medium - term target, and price pressures in the eurozone continue to ease. The eurozone economy shows resilience in a complex global environment, but external uncertainties, especially trade disputes, are significant [2] - On September 11 local time, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Israel's attack on Qatar on the 9th. Qatar will not tolerate any infringement of its sovereignty and national security, and reserves the right to respond in accordance with international law. Qatar prioritizes mediating a cease - fire between Palestine and Israel while retaining the right to retaliate [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93.9%, and the probability of cutting by 50 basis points is 6.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by October is 7.6%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 86.8%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 5.6% [3]