Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-12 11:11Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - Viscose staple fiber is the most important regenerated fiber, with China being the main producer. In 2023, global viscose fiber production was approximately 6.3 million tons, with China accounting for 4.12 million tons, or 65% of the total [2][17] - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a reduction in capacity in recent years, with a high concentration (CR3 > 70%). The total domestic capacity decreased from 5.17 million tons in 2021 to 4.81 million tons in 2024 [3][28] - The current industry state is characterized by "high operating rates and low inventory," indicating potential price and profit recovery as the traditional demand peak season approaches [4][32] Summary by Sections 1. Viscose Staple Fiber as a Key Regenerated Fiber - Viscose fiber, particularly viscose staple fiber, dominates the regenerated fiber market, accounting for 80% of global production in 2023. In China, viscose staple fiber represents about 95% of the viscose fiber market [2][12] - The production process of viscose staple fiber involves significant environmental concerns, leading to constraints on new capacity due to environmental policies [3][25] 2. High Industry Concentration - The viscose staple fiber industry in China has a high concentration, with the top three companies (Sateri, Zhongtai Chemical, and Sanyou Chemical) holding a combined market share of 72% as of 2024 [3][28] - The industry has undergone consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the market share of leading companies [3][28] 3. Current Industry Dynamics - The viscose staple fiber industry is currently experiencing high operating rates (88.6% as of September 5, 2025) and low inventory levels (12.8 thousand tons), which are below the average levels from 2020 to 2024 [4][32] - The average inventory level is expected to decrease further as the traditional demand peak season approaches, indicating a potential for price recovery [4][32] 4. Downstream Demand - The primary applications of viscose staple fiber are in yarns and non-woven fabrics, with yarns being the main consumption area. From 2014 to 2024, the apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China grew from 2.93 million tons to 4.35 million tons, with a CAGR of 4.0% [5][37] - Non-woven fabric demand has significantly increased, with consumption rising from 351 thousand tons to 1.23 million tons between 2019 and 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 28.5% [5][37] 5. Focus on Leading Companies - Sanyou Chemical is noted for its differentiated product offerings, with an annual production capacity of 800 thousand tons, and holds a market share of approximately 17% [6][47] - Zhongtai Chemical benefits from an integrated circular economy model, with a production capacity of 880 thousand tons, making it the second-largest producer in China [6][47]