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钢矿:短期震荡中期上方仍有空间
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-09-12 11:24

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the pressure level for rebar at 3230 and the support level at 3050; for hot-rolled coil, the pressure level is 3450 and the support level is 3250; for the main iron ore contract 2601, the pressure level is 833 and the support level is 750. In the medium term, there is still room for an upward trend, and the lows of rebar and hot-rolled coil in the second half of the year are higher than those in the first half [4]. - The overall supply of steel has decreased, but there is a structural differentiation. After major events, blast furnace steelmaking has gradually recovered, while the reduction of electric arc furnace steel is significant. The supply of long products has decreased, and the supply of plate products has increased. The demand in "Golden September" has improved, but the recovery momentum is not stable, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Supply - The total supply of the five major steel products this week was 8.5724 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 34,100 tons, a decline of 0.4%. After major events, blast furnace steelmaking has gradually recovered, with the daily output of molten iron this week at 240,550 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,710 tons, slightly higher than the level before the military parade. The reduction of electric arc furnace steel is significant. As of September 11, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,341 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 151 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit loss of 55 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The production enthusiasm of electric arc furnace steel is limited. The supply of long products has decreased, and the supply of plate products has increased [17]. Steel Inventory - The total steel inventory this week was 15.1461 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 139,100 tons, an increase of 0.93% [18]. Iron Ore Supply and Inventory - From September 1 to September 7, the total global iron ore shipments were 27.562 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8.006 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 23.296 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.725 million tons. The Australian shipments were 18.224 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 722,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.313 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 5.072 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.003 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 22.67 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.411 million tons. The Australian shipments were 17.795 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 320,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.922 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 418,000 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 4.875 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.092 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China from September 1 to September 7 was 25.729 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 721,000 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 24.48 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 780,000 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 13.2 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 192,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country this week was 144.5612 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 304,000 tons [27]. Important Industry News - According to the statistics of the main excavator manufacturers by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in August 2025, 16,523 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 7,685 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; the export volume was 8,838 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. From January to August 2025, a total of 154,181 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; among them, the domestic sales volume was 80,628 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; the export volume was 73,553 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. In August 2025, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 10.6%; from January to August, the cumulative steel imports were 3.977 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. In August 2025, China imported 105.225 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 602,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%; from January to August, the cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 801.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. In August 2025, China exported 763,000 vehicles. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 4.928 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. In August 2025, China exported 403.8 million household appliances. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 2.993412 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. By 2027, more than five professional large models will be promoted for in-depth application in industries such as power grids, power generation, coal, and oil and gas. On September 3, the total scrap steel inventory of 300 representative long and short process steel mills across the country was 494,400 tons, a decrease of 28,600 tons from the previous day, a decrease of 0.58%; the daily consumption volume was 54,370 tons, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day; the daily arrival volume was 51,510 tons, an increase of 0.27% from the previous day. In August 2025, China exported 951,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 32,600 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative steel exports were 7.749 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [12][13].