中泰期货晨会纪要-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - Financial: Consider buying A - share index futures on dips and bonds on dips. For bonds, a steepening strategy can be considered at the start [8][9] - Black Metals: Steel is expected to remain in a volatile range, and it is recommended to wait and see. Hold a small - short position in iron ore. Double - coking prices may continue to decline from high - level oscillations in the short term. For ferroalloys, go long on the silicon - iron 10 - contract on dips and short the manganese - silicon on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, maintain a short - on - rallies strategy, and for glass, wait and see [14][15][16] - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: For aluminum, buy on dips; for alumina, short on rallies. Zinc prices are expected to decline after the inventory inflection point. For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. For polysilicon, be cautious due to policy - driven fluctuations [20][21][22] - Agricultural Products: For cotton, short on rallies; for sugar, pay attention to the spread between domestic and international sugar prices and consider short - covering. For eggs, wait and see for high - level shorting opportunities. For apples, buy on dips. For corn, short the 01 - contract on rallies. For dates, short on rallies. For live pigs, wait and see in the short term and consider going long on the 01 - contract in the medium - to - long term [24][27][29] - Energy and Chemicals: Consider shorting crude oil on rallies. Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil. For plastics, expect weak oscillations. For rubber, pay attention to supply, demand, and policy news. For methanol, use an oscillatory trading approach. For caustic soda, use an oscillatory trading approach. For asphalt, expect a short - term trading range between 3350 - 3480. For the polyester industry chain, the market remains weak. For liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a long - term bearish view. For pulp, observe port de - stocking and spot transactions. For urea, follow spot prices for futures operations. For synthetic rubber, wait and see [34][35][37] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively, and believed that the global economy was maintaining a steady growth trend in the second half of this year [6] 3.2 Macro - Financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - A - shares rose sharply with heavy volume, and over 4200 stocks increased. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to regain 3000 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 5.32%. The market turnover expanded to 2.46 trillion yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on trend trading [8] 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Consider buying bonds on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing, and start with a steepening strategy. The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the capital interest rate has slightly declined. The stock market is strong today, putting pressure on the bond market. The weak foreign trade data may boost future monetary easing [9] 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has limited impact on steel supply and market. The base - spread positive - arbitrage closing may suppress spot prices, and the peak season may not be prosperous due to limited real demand. Supply is expected to remain strong, and raw material prices are oscillating at high levels. Steel is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see; hold a small - short position in iron ore [13][14] 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may continue to decline from high - level oscillations in the short term. Supply may gradually recover after the parade, but the "anti - involution" expectation has re - emerged. The supply side may face restrictions in the medium term, and demand may peak and decline [15] 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The mainstream market expects the price of Hebei Iron and Steel's current tender to increase by 50 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the inquiry price. The supply - demand imbalance of manganese - silicon is more severe than that of silicon - iron, and the spread between the two may widen. Go long on the silicon - iron 10 - contract on dips and short the manganese - silicon on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [16] 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short on rallies; for glass, wait and see. Soda ash production is recovering, and inventory is decreasing. Glass inventory is decreasing, but the supply may increase slightly in the future [17][18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, buy on dips due to strong Fed rate - cut expectations and improving consumption in the peak season. For alumina, short on rallies due to high supply and increasing inventory [20] 3.4.2 Zinc - Zinc social inventory is increasing, and the inventory inflection point has arrived. Rising processing fees and increased supply during the off - season are expected to cause zinc prices to decline [20] 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The price is supported by increased de - stocking, but the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo may put pressure on the price [20] 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - It is expected to oscillate within a range. The resumption of production of leading factories in Xinjiang is the core contradiction in supply and demand [21] 3.4.5 Polysilicon - Policy progress dominates the price fluctuations. There is a contradiction between strong policy expectations and over - supply in the fundamentals [22] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Keep a short - on - rallies strategy due to complex supply - demand games, increasing supply, and weak demand [24] 3.5.2 Sugar - The sugar price fundamentals are bearish, but it rebounds due to technical factors. Pay close attention to the spread between domestic and international sugar prices [27] 3.5.3 Eggs - The supply is high, and the post - Mid - Autumn Festival outlook is weak. However, the current peak - season spot is strong, and there is a de - capacity expectation. Wait and see for high - level shorting opportunities [29] 3.5.4 Apples - Buy on dips. The new - season opening price is expected to be high, and the price of early - maturing apples and old - season apples will affect the new - season Fuji opening price [30] 3.5.5 Corn - Short the 01 - contract on rallies. The domestic corn price is diverging, and the new - season supply and demand situation needs attention [31] 3.5.6 Dates - Short on rallies. The market trading is light, and the rain in the production area may affect the quality [33] 3.5.7 Live Pigs - Wait and see in the short term and consider going long on the 01 - contract in the medium - to - long term. The short - term supply is strong and demand is weak, but the end - of - month consumption may improve [33] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Consider shorting on rallies. EIA crude oil inventory increased unexpectedly, and the supply is expected to exceed demand in the long term [34] 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Follow the crude oil price. The price may decline due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [35] 3.6.3 Plastics - Expect weak oscillations. The supply is high, and the demand is weak, but market rumors may boost sentiment [37] 3.6.4 Rubber - Pay attention to supply, demand, and policy news. The supply is recovering, but the downstream demand may be affected by tariffs [38] 3.6.5 Methanol - Use an oscillatory trading approach. The port inventory is increasing, but market rumors may affect supply [39] 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - Use an oscillatory trading approach. The supply is high, and the price increase is weak, but the pre - holiday stocking may limit the decline [40] 3.6.7 Asphalt - Expect a short - term trading range between 3350 - 3480. It is in the seasonal demand peak season, and inventory changes are crucial [41] 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - The market is weak due to insufficient cost support. PX supply is increasing, PTA supply is rising, and ethylene glycol has long - term supply pressure [43] 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Maintain a long - term bearish view. Supply is abundant, and demand is hard to exceed expectations [44] 3.6.10 Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions. The inventory is decreasing, and there is a planned maintenance [45] 3.6.11 Urea - Follow spot prices for futures operations. The domestic demand is weak, and the Indian tender results have limited impact on the domestic market [46] 3.6.12 Synthetic Rubber - Wait and see. The short - term supply and policy may put pressure on the price, but the decline space is limited [47]