贵金属数据日报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, inflation pressure in the US still exists, but the rebound is relatively limited, supporting the Fed's August rate cut. The increase in the weekly initial jobless claims in the US highlights the downward risk in the job market and boosts the expectation of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, which supports precious metal prices. However, the strong performance of domestic and overseas bond markets restricts the attractiveness of gold, while silver benefits from risk improvement and shows a strong performance similar to industrial products. Before the rate cut is implemented, precious metal prices are expected to remain at a high level, and long positions can be held, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [5]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On September 11, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.31% to 830.78 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.28% to 9,798 yuan/kilogram [5]. Price and Spread Data - Price Data: On September 11, compared with September 10, London gold spot rose 0.2%, COMEX silver fell 0.2%, AG (T + D) fell 0.3%, London silver spot rose 0.1%, AU2510 fell 0.3%, COMEX gold fell 0.3%, AG2510 remained unchanged, and AU (T + D) remained unchanged [5]. - Spread Data: For spreads on September 11 compared with September 10, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 17.1%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 16.3%, the spread of gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) increased by 1.2%, the spread of silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 22.0%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.4%, the AU2512 - 2510 spread increased by 12.0%, the AG2512 - 2510 spread increased by 15.0% [5]. Position and Inventory Data - Position Data: For COMEX gold non - commercial long positions on September 10 compared with September 9, the number increased by 14.52%, and for COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, it increased by 7.83%. The number of gold ETF - SPDR positions increased by 16.43%, and the number of silver ETF - SLV positions decreased by 14.79% [5]. - Inventory Data: On September 10 compared with September 9, SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.96%, COMEX silver inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.47%, and COMEX gold inventory increased by 9.14% [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On September 11 compared with September 10, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.98%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 2.06%, NYWEX crude oil decreased by 0.04%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.08%, the US dollar index increased by 0.30%, and VIX increased by 1.56% [5].