国债期货日报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. The bond market may maintain a weak and volatile trend without a positive statement from the central bank. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Friday, Treasury bond futures showed a volatile intraday trend, with long - term varieties closing higher. The short - end yield of spot bonds increased, while the long - end yield decreased. The open - market had a net injection of 4.17 billion, and the funding situation was stable, with DR001 around 1.36% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the current week was 263,000, rising to a nearly four - year high. The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [2] - The weighted winning bid rates for the 2 - year and 7 - year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.44% and 1.78% respectively, and the marginal winning bid rates were 1.47% and 1.81% respectively [2] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A - share market reached a new high and then declined today, but the bond market was hardly affected, and long - term bonds showed a weak rebound. The central bank continued to inject funds in the open - market, and the funding situation was stable. The issuance of 2Y and 7Y Treasury bonds in the primary market was acceptable. The new 2Y bonds may become the CTD of TS2512 in the future, and attention should be paid to whether the futures price will be under pressure. Currently, the market's expectation for the central bank to restart bond purchases has increased, but with the acceptable performance of the primary market, the central bank may not be in a hurry to act [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - TS2512 closed at 102.364, down 0.042 from the previous day; TF2512 closed at 105.58, down 0.01; T2512 closed at 107.68, up 0.035; TL2512 closed at 115.16, up 0.33 [4] - TS contract positions decreased by 1,839 to 70,916; TF contract positions decreased by 10,207 to 136,763; T contract positions decreased by 2,661 to 231,546; TL contract positions increased by 3,489 to 160,648 [4] - TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.035 to - 0.053; TF basis (CTD) increased by 0.0101 to 0.0401; T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.039 to 0.3793; TL basis (CTD) decreased by 0.1874 to 0.3058 [4] - TS main contract trading volume decreased by 772 to 34,239; TF main contract trading volume decreased by 11,105 to 71,456; T main contract trading volume decreased by 22,253 to 103,800; TL main contract trading volume decreased by 56,563 to 150,180 [4]