房地产及建材行业双周报：建材“防内卷”政策持续落地行业盈利有所改善-20250912

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policies in the building materials sector are being implemented, leading to improved industry profitability [2]. - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen are expected to stimulate short-term market activity, although long-term recovery will depend on sales data and corporate performance [2][25]. - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery due to self-regulation and cost optimization, with expectations for further profit increases in the second half of 2025 [2][44]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing weak supply-demand balance, but potential improvements in demand could lead to price recovery [2][45]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of September 11, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.72 percentage points [11]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities rose by 0.20% month-on-month and 2.73% year-on-year, while second-hand housing prices fell by 0.76% month-on-month and 7.34% year-on-year [23][25]. - Major real estate companies are facing continued pressure, with mid-year losses widening compared to the previous year [25]. - Recommended companies include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) for their strong performance in first and second-tier cities [2][25]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has increased by 0.31% over the past two weeks, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [26]. - The average price of cement is currently at 314 RMB/ton, with a slight decrease of 1 RMB/ton from the previous week [30]. - The glass industry is in a weak supply-demand balance, with limited price rebound potential in the short term, but a possible recovery as construction activity increases [45]. - Recommended companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) for their solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [44][46].