通胀反弹，但市场更关注就业风险

Inflation Trends - The August CPI showed a significant rebound, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% in July to 0.38% in August, slightly above the market expectation of 0.33%[5] - Year-on-year CPI growth rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, indicating a return to an upward trend[5] - Core CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.32% to 0.35%, also exceeding market expectations of 0.31%[5] Employment Concerns - The number of first-time unemployment claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 235,000[6] - The projected increase in employment from April 2024 to March 2025 was revised down by 91,100, with average monthly job growth adjusted from 136,000 to 60,000[6] - The risk of employment deterioration is now seen as greater than the risk of uncontrolled inflation, leading to an 81% probability of three rate cuts this year[1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice, in September and December, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, with the year-end target for the federal funds rate set at 3.75%-4%[1] - Further rate cuts are anticipated next year, potentially bringing the year-end target down to 3.25%-3.5% as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]