Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (indicating a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market is gradually stabilizing after continuous adjustments, with costs providing support, but short-term fluctuations remain, and attention should be paid to the improvement in building material demand during the peak season [2]. - Iron ore is expected to mainly trade in a high-range oscillation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are strongly oscillating, affected by the policy expectations of "anti-involution" and market sentiment, with large price volatility [4][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north and the continuity of "anti-involution" policies [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The rebar's apparent demand and production continued to decline this week, with inventory accumulating, while the demand for hot-rolled coils significantly recovered, production increased, and inventory slightly decreased [2]. - The blast furnace is rapidly resuming production, with a significant increase in molten iron production, and the negative feedback pressure has eased, but the poor profit from steel stocking restricts further resumption of production [2]. - The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down, domestic demand remained weak overall, and steel exports remained at a high level [2]. - After continuous adjustments, the pressure on the market has been gradually released, the cost support at the bottom has strengthened, and the market has stabilized in fluctuations, but there may still be short-term fluctuations [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have declined, domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, and port inventories have stabilized and increased, with no significant pressure on inventory accumulation in the short term [3]. - On the demand side, terminal demand has slightly recovered, steel mill profitability is at a low level, molten iron production has returned to a high level this week, and there is still support for iron ore demand in the short term, with steel mills having a certain demand for pre-holiday restocking in the next two weeks [3]. - Domestic policy benefits are yet to be released, and the market speculation sentiment still exists in the short term. It is expected that iron ore will mainly trade in a high-range oscillation [3]. Coke - The price was strongly oscillating during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking is in progress, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of molten iron production [4]. - Coking profits are acceptable, and daily coking production has slightly decreased. The overall coke inventory has increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders has decreased [4]. - The supply of carbon elements remains abundant, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery in downstream molten iron production. Affected by events, the short-term decline was significant, and the market sentiment still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [4]. Coking Coal - The price was strongly oscillating during the day, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of molten iron production [5]. - Affected by the parade, the production of coking coal mines has increased month-on-month. The spot auction transactions have slightly weakened, the transaction price has declined following the market, and the terminal inventory has slightly decreased [5]. - The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, the production-side inventory has continued to slightly increase, and the previous shutdowns of coking coal have gradually resumed [5]. Silicomanganese - The price oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north, with the current moving average price at 5,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The short-term decline in molten iron production has a relatively small impact on the overall demand, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery later [6]. - The weekly production of silicomanganese has continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory has not yet accumulated, with good market demand [6]. - The long-term quotation of manganese ore has slightly increased month-on-month, and the spot ore price has decreased this week. After a significant rebound in the market, it is expected that the spot manganese ore price will mainly rise [6]. Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north, with the current inquiry price at 5,700 yuan/ton [7]. - The short-term decline in molten iron production has a relatively small impact on the overall demand, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery later [7]. - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has slightly decreased month-on-month, and the demand has slightly declined marginally, but the overall demand is still acceptable [7]. - The supply of ferrosilicon has continued to significantly increase, the market's forward-looking demand is good, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased [7].
黑色金属日报-20250912
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-12 11:59