能源日报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market still switches between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, with limited upside space for each rebound. The strategy mainly combines previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2]. - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, geopolitical fluctuations support FU, and the LU - FU spread continues to shrink [3]. - The decline in asphalt is dragged down by the sharp drop in crude oil. Although the slowdown in shipments in early September is expected to have a short - term impact, the special bonds from August to October 2025 are still considerable. Observe the bottom support strength after the decline in asphalt cracking [4]. - The international LPG market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by the increase in import costs, but the high inventory on the futures market restricts the upward momentum, and it mainly operates in a range [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent November contract down 1.9%. The IEA's September report shows that the increase in supply expectations for the year is greater than that in demand, and the market surplus will be more prominent in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil fell at night, and fuel - related futures opened lower. The LU2511 contract fell 3%, and the FU2601 contract fell 2.7%. The net reduction of FU warehouse receipts in the past two trading days was 6,800 tons to 101,500 tons, which boosted FU. The LU - FU spread of the main contract has narrowed from 710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 550 yuan/ton [3]. Asphalt - Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, asphalt prices declined. Today, the net increase in warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons. The slowdown in shipments in early September is expected to have a short - term impact. The special bonds from August to October 2025 are still considerable, and both factory and social inventories are decreasing but at a slower pace [4]. LPG - The international LPG market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased due to typhoons, strengthening the support of rising import costs for the domestic market. The terminal product prices are rising, and the high - operating - rate pattern can be maintained. However, the high inventory on the futures market restricts the upward momentum, and it mainly operates in a range [5].