宏观策略周报：8月核心CPI持续回升，进出口连续3个月实现双增长-20250912

Key Points - The core consumer price index (CPI) in August increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, while the overall CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year [2][11][12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) ended its eight-month decline, remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][15][16] - In the U.S., the CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, aligning with market expectations, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][19] - China's total import and export value for the first eight months of the year reached 29.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with August seeing a 3.5% growth in both imports and exports [2][21] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines to promote the integration of artificial intelligence and energy sectors, aiming for significant breakthroughs in core technologies by 2030 [3][22][23] Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index experiencing the highest increase of 5.5% [4][27] - The electronic industry led the sector gains with a rise of 6.15% [4][29] - The report highlights the resilience of foreign trade, with continuous growth in imports and exports over the past three months, indicating a stable economic environment [4][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on new productive forces, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and robotics, which are expected to yield excess returns [5][34] - Emphasize consumer spending to stimulate domestic demand, with potential investment opportunities in new consumption, home appliances, and automobiles [5][34] - Consider high-dividend assets for stable long-term returns [5][34] - Explore long-term investment opportunities in gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [5][34]