美国8月CPI点评：通胀不再是联储核心矛盾？

Overview - The overall CPI for August in the U.S. was 2.9% year-on-year, matching market expectations, while the core CPI was also 3.1%, in line with predictions[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.4%, slightly above the expected 0.3%, and the core CPI rose by 0.3%, meeting expectations[2] Inflation Structure - Core goods CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in July, driven mainly by new and used cars and clothing, while other categories like appliances and medical goods showed weakness[3] - Super core service inflation weakened, with core services CPI rising by only 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4% in July, indicating a cooling trend in non-housing services[3] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index dropped to 97.6, and gold prices surged by $30 per ounce, reflecting market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts[2][14] - The market adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts from 2.7 to 2.9 times within the year, indicating a stronger belief in the Fed's potential easing[38] Future Outlook - The report suggests that inflation may exhibit a "slower and longer" trend, with CPI expected to stabilize around 3.0% over the next three quarters according to Bloomberg forecasts[4][33] - Employment data will likely become a core concern for the Fed, with a potential condition for rate cuts being an unemployment rate exceeding 4.5%[4][38] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the Fed adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[43][44]