焦煤焦炭周度报告-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The dual - coking futures prices maintained a sideways consolidation with a narrowing amplitude this week. Overseas economic data is weak, and the finished product market performs poorly. The inventory pressure of coking coal upstream has been significantly reduced. After the parade, the supply and demand sides of dual - coking are slowly recovering, and the increase in hot metal production supports the demand for dual - coking, weakening the downward price drive. The firmness of raw material prices erodes steel mill profits, and steel mills' willingness to lower coke prices is increasing. In the short term, the dual - coking fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the futures prices will mainly fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [6][35]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - As of September 9, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects increased slightly, while that of housing construction projects decreased significantly [5]. - The US revised down its non - farm employment figures by 911,000 from March last year to March this year, and the number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since October 2021. From January to August 2025, the sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises decreased by 17% year - on - year. In August, China's steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month [7]. - The supply of coking coal increased slightly, and the upstream inventory continued to decline. Independent coking enterprises continued to reduce coking coal inventory, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Coke production increased, and consumption followed the rise in hot metal production. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the second round began [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors include reduced coking coal inventory pressure, increased hot metal production driving up coke demand, and replenishment expectations before the National Day [10]. - Bearish factors include the recovery of Mongolian coal imports, low enthusiasm for downstream coking coal replenishment, and weak US economic data affecting overseas demand expectations [10]. Data Analysis - Coking coal supply: The operating rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants decreased slightly, but the daily output of clean coal increased. The operating rate and daily output of 523 sample mines increased. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port also increased [13]. - Coking coal upstream inventory: As of September 12, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines, 314 sample coal - washing plants, and ports all decreased, reducing the overall inventory pressure [16]. - Independent coking enterprises: As of September 12, the coking coal inventory decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased slightly, and the replenishment enthusiasm for coking coal remained weak [19]. - Steel mills: As of September 12, the coking coal inventory decreased, and the coke inventory increased. The overall raw materials were mainly purchased for rigid demand [23]. - Coke production: As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises increased after the parade [25]. - Coke consumption: As of September 12, China's coke consumption increased, and the daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises exceeded 2.4 million tons, driving up coke demand [27]. - Coke price cuts: After the first - round coke price cut, the profit of coking enterprises was compressed. Steel mills' willingness to cut prices increased, and the second - round price cut was planned to be implemented on September 15 [30]. - Dual - coking far - month basis structure: The spot and futures prices of dual - coking fluctuated at high levels [32]. 后市研判 - From a macro perspective, overseas economic data is weak, and the finished product market performs poorly. The inventory pressure of coking coal upstream has been reduced, and after the parade, the supply and demand of the black series are recovering. In the short term, the dual - coking market will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [35]. - The steel spot market performs poorly, and the firmness of raw material prices erodes steel mill profits. Steel mills' willingness to lower coke prices is increasing. Coke prices are supported by coking coal costs at the bottom and restricted by steel mill profits at the top, and will fluctuate within a range [38].