Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. for August remained stable at 3.1%, while the overall CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% due to a lower base effect[1] - Month-on-month, the core CPI rose from 0.32% in July to 0.35% in August, slightly above the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rebounded from 0.20% in July to 0.38% in August, exceeding market expectations[1] Labor Market Trends - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, down from 79,000 in July and significantly below the market expectation of 75,000[1] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324% in August[1] - The average hourly wage growth showed a slight decline both month-on-month and year-on-year[1] Core Components Analysis - Housing CPI showed a significant increase, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 0.44% in August, primarily due to seasonal factors affecting lodging prices[2] - Super core service prices decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 0.22%, with transportation services being the only strong segment driven by rising airfare prices[2] - Core goods prices increased slightly by 0.07 percentage points to 0.28%, with clothing prices rising significantly due to seasonal changes[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The expectation is for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, supported by the recent economic data[4] - The labor market's continued weakness and stable inflation data provide a basis for the anticipated rate cut[4] - Risks remain regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the potential for further rate cuts if labor market conditions deteriorate[4]
数据点评:美国8月核心CPI符合预期,锁定下周25个基点降息
SPDB International·2025-09-12 12:07