宏观经济周报：警惕预期兑现和风险共振-20250912

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - August non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, with previous months' employment figures revised down[1] - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a significant increase in household survey employment, but the job market shows signs of prolonged weakness[1] - Inflation indicators show a mild increase in overall CPI, but the super core CPI excluding housing and used cars has slowed down, raising concerns[1] Group 2: European Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its current policy stance, showing confidence in future inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone[1] - Market expectations for another rate cut before mid-2026 have dropped below 50%[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - August export growth declined year-on-year due to a high base effect from last year, with exports to non-US countries outperforming those to the US[4] - PPI year-on-year growth has narrowed due to low base effects and "anti-involution" policies, while CPI growth is significantly impacted by food and energy prices[4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance fiscal-financial coordination[4] Group 4: Market Trends and Prices - Real estate transactions remain sluggish, while wholesale prices of agricultural products have rebounded[4] - Steel prices are stable, cement prices have slightly increased, and coal prices have decreased, while non-ferrous metal prices have risen[4]