利率债周报：收益率曲线陡峭化上行-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remains under pressure, and the main influencing factor is the continuous strength of the equity market. The outlook for the bond market depends on the liquidity situation and the performance of the equity market [15][20]. - In terms of fundamentals, the pressure on domestic and external demand cannot be underestimated. The low fundamental data implies a low return on the real economy, and bond - type assets also have difficulty providing higher comprehensive returns, so the sensitivity of bonds to fundamentals has decreased [19]. - Regarding policies, fiscal policy continues to exert force, with the next - stage focus on strengthening the domestic cycle. Monetary policy is expected to implement existing policies, and there is an increased expectation that the central bank will restart buying treasury bonds [19][20]. - For the capital side, the central bank may start to conduct 14 - day reverse repurchase operations in mid - September, and attention should be paid to the cross - quarter capital trend [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Event Reviews - Import and Export Data: In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports declined, with a significant drop in exports to the United States, while exports to non - US regions remained strong. In the future, exports may face the impact of demand overdraft from "rush exports" and the cancellation of the small - parcel tariff exemption. However, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the import demand of non - US regions may be boosted [2][8]. - Inflation Data: In August 2025, "anti - involution" had a positive impact on the year - on - year and month - on - month readings of PPI. The supply - demand relationship of some energy and raw material industries improved, and prices in industries such as coal processing, ferrous metal processing, and glass manufacturing turned from falling to rising. It is expected that in September, the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will continue to rise from a low level, and the month - on - month rate is expected to turn positive [2][9]. 3.2 Capital Prices - From September 5th to September 11th, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds in the open market, resulting in a marginal tightening of the capital side. The capital price rose slightly, with DR007 rising from below 1.45% to around 1.48%. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to rise, which restricted the bullish sentiment in the bond market [11]. 3.3 Primary Market - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is nearing completion. During the statistical period, 74 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 632.5 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 45.2 billion yuan. As of September 11th, 1.1 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been issued in 2025, and the supply pressure is gradually decreasing [13]. 3.4 Secondary Market - During the statistical period, the bond market was continuously under pressure, and the yield curve of treasury bonds steepened and rose. The continuous strength of the equity market was the main influencing factor. Additionally, the adjustment of fund redemption fees also had a certain impact on the market [15]. 3.5 Market Outlook - First, pay attention to the capital situation. If the capital side tightens, be vigilant about the downward risk of the bond market. If the capital side is relatively loose, then further monitor the changes in the equity market. If the sentiment in the equity market cools down, the bond market may experience a phased improvement, but do not overestimate the downward space of interest rates. If the equity market remains strong, the bond market may continue to fluctuate negatively [20].