农产品日报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy Recommendations: Soybean (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Egg (★★★) [1] - Sell Recommendations: None - Hold Recommendations: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Corn (★★★), Live Pig (★★★) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market trends of various agricultural products are mainly volatile, and different products have different driving factors. Market participants need to pay attention to policy, weather, trade results, and other information. For some products, a low - buying strategy can be considered, while for others, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The main domestic soybean futures contract rebounded from a low, basically recovering the decline in the first half of the week. The domestic soybean auction on Friday had poor results, with all 36,112 tons up for sale at a base price of 4,100/4,150 yuan/ton failing to sell. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the market is concerned about future supply pressure due to the expected good harvest this year. Policy and new - crop yield performance should be continuously monitored [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 4, the net export sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 541,000 tons, down from 818,000 tons the previous week. As of September 9, about 22% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The USDA will release a September supply - demand report on the early morning of September 13. The market expects a reduction in soybean yield, which is bullish for US soybeans. The short - term market may continue to be volatile and bullish, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the market expects a decline in US soybean yield, US soybean exports, and Argentine soybean planting area. Domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices are volatile. In the medium term, palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US support industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the aging of palm trees may have a bottom - supporting effect on soybean and palm oils. A low - buying strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products declined slightly. The market is waiting for the US agricultural supply - demand report. Canadian rapeseed harvesting is underway, and there is no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. Ukraine's tariff on oilseed exports may affect its exports to the EU. Canadian and Australian rapeseed may expand into the EU market, potentially stabilizing global rapeseed prices. Domestic rapeseed product demand is suppressed, and inventory reduction is slow. The price center of rapeseed futures may move slightly upward [6] Corn - Corn futures were volatile and bearish today. CGC imported about 190,000 tons of corn for auction, with a 34% transaction rate. Shandong's spot supply remains loose, while the spot price at Northeast ports is strong. New - crop corn may be delayed due to heavy rainfall in the Northeast. Corn prices may be volatile and bullish before the new - crop harvest, and Dalian corn futures may be bearish at the bottom after the harvest enthusiasm fades [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures were volatile and adjusted, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were stable and slightly bullish. In the second half of the year, supply pressure is high due to the continuous realization of previous production capacity. The market is waiting for the results of the live pig production capacity regulation symposium on September 17. The current main - contract futures price has fallen close to the initial level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8] Egg - Egg spot prices continued to rise, while distant - month futures contracts declined significantly, and near - month contracts were supported by the rising spot price. The market is in a seasonal rebound window. The industry has a high inventory problem, and capacity reduction is still needed. The pressure of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of this round of production capacity is expected to be reached in the fourth quarter. A long - position strategy can be considered for distant - month contracts next year, and attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds from near - month contracts [9]