苯乙烯持续承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report implies a bearish outlook for the styrene industry, suggesting that the styrene futures 2510 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [7]. 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support for styrene from upstream pure benzene is weakening, while the domestic styrene production capacity utilization rate is rising, output is slightly increasing, and downstream consumption is sluggish. With only rigid demand support, port inventories have slightly increased, and future demand needs improvement. Due to these bearish industry factors, the styrene futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene's Weak Impact on Styrene Cost Support - The domestic pure benzene supply - demand pattern is weak. External import pressure is high. From January to June 2025, South Korea's pure benzene exports to the US decreased by 450,000 tons (a 90% drop), while exports to China increased by 620,000 tons (a 79% increase). China's cumulative pure benzene imports in the first half of 2025 were 2.7306 million tons, a 56.19% increase year - on - year. In July, the single - month import volume returned to 500,000 tons, and the annual import volume may exceed 5 million tons [3]. - Domestic pure benzene production is growing. As of the end of August, the domestic petroleum benzene capacity utilization rate was 79.18%, a slight 0.19 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, and the output was 451,900 tons, a 0.24% increase month - on - month. Given the large future supply pressure, the weak price trend of pure benzene is hard to change, and its cost support for styrene is weakening [3]. Rising Supply Pressure of Styrene - In August 2025, China's styrene plant capacity utilization rate was about 79.95%, a 1.31% increase month - on - month, and the monthly output was expected to be 1.6217 million tons, a 1.31% increase month - on - month [4]. - As of September 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese styrene plants was 79.74%, a 1.67% increase week - on - week, with a total output of 376,500 tons, a 0.79 - thousand - ton increase week - on - week and a 2.14% increase month - on - month. In September, although there are maintenance plans for some enterprises, the supply increase from new device commissioning and the maintenance loss are basically balanced, and the output may remain stable [4]. Downstream Demand Needs Improvement - Since September, domestic styrene downstream demand has been mainly supported by rigid demand, showing relative stability but lacking incremental momentum. The operating rates of some downstream products such as EPS, PS, ABS, and styrene - butadiene rubber have increased year - on - year, but the profitability of downstream enterprises is generally under pressure, mostly at the break - even point [5]. - Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid replenishment, with low initiative to stock up, having limited impact on market boosting. As of early September 2025, the total sample inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu was 196,500 tons, a 9.78% increase week - on - week. The commercial inventory was 96,500 tons, a 14.88% increase week - on - week. In the short term, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly [5].