软商品日报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - term downward trend, with a driving force for decline but poor operability on the market [1] - Log: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, pulp, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and inventory levels. Most commodities are recommended for a wait - and - see approach due to factors such as uncertain supply, weak demand, or uninitiated peak - season demand [2][3][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot sales basis of cotton was mostly stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with production potentially exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a rush to purchase by ginneries, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked cotton purchase price is 7.5 - 7.6 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The pure - cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream orders are still weak. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year in the short term, and the supply pressure was less than last year. The sugar - alcohol ratio is still at the upper edge of the historical range, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar declined weakly. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the physical - goods pressure is relatively light. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and next season's output estimate. The syrup import volume decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 season is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rebound. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, and merchants were actively purchasing. The price of early - maturing apples was high, and the market expected a high opening price for late - maturing apples in October. The apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks positive drivers. The cold - storage inventory in the new quarter may be higher than expected. It is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR continued to decline, and the futures market sentiment weakened. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, and the external butadiene tower - mouth price was stable. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and rainfall in most Southeast Asian producing areas is still high. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly this week. China's automobile production, sales, and exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month in August. The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires increased significantly this week. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 592,000 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rose to 134,000 tons. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the port inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period but was still high year - on - year. The warehouse receipt digestion was slow, and the Russian coniferous warehouse receipts still suppressed the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports decreased in August. Domestically, inflation is expected to remain weak this year, and although the PPI data improved marginally, the transmission of price increases was blocked due to over - capacity in the mid - and downstream. The supply of pulp is relatively loose, and demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [7] Log - The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was stable. The arrival volume decreased significantly last week. The New Zealand radiata pine price decreased in September, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The external price is still high, and domestic supply is expected to remain low. The demand is entering the peak season, but the port shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]