航运衍生品数据日报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market shows a downward trend. The spot freight rates are still falling, and there is a possibility of further price drops in September. The shift of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates. The recommended strategy is to go short on the October contract and roll the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 0.04% to 1444, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.62% to 1149. The SCFI - US West increased by 13.83% to 2189, SCFIS - US West decreased by 3.26% to 980, SCFI - US East increased by 7.22% to 3073, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.21% to 1315. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.68% to 1566, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 8.11% to 1971 [4]. - Contracts: All shipping contracts showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased by 0.92% to 1430.6, EC2608 decreased by 0.31% to 1595.0 [4]. - Positions: The positions of some contracts increased. For example, EC2606 positions increased by 6 to 963, and EC2410 positions increased by 2187 to 49507 [4]. - Monthly Spread: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 1.3 to - 405.3, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 38.3 to 111.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread decreased by 60.9 to 367.1 [4]. Market News - Trade Shift: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus. Southeast Asia and Africa have become the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the number of direct sailings from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March, setting a record. However, if US demand weakens, Southeast Asian exports will be affected, which will reduce the demand for Chinese intermediate goods [5]. - Transport Season: The peak season for China - US cargo transportation usually lasts until October, but this year's peak occurred in July [5]. - Shipping Company Policies: CMA CGM will not charge shippers additional port fees for using Chinese - built container ships on US routes and will not reduce the coverage of US port calls. The Gemini's TP9/WC6 trans - Pacific route will be completely suspended in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5]. EC Market - Market Review: The market is in a downward trend. The GEMINI price in mid - September dropped to 1800. The market FMK freight rate center in mid - September was at 1850 [6]. - Logic: Maersk's opening price for the new week (wk39) dropped to 1550, a decrease of 150 compared to the previous week. OOCL dropped to 1600, and there is a possibility of further price drops in September. With the cooling of market optimism and the focus on spot quotes, the spot freight rates are still falling. Before the National Day on October 1st, the competition for goods may cause freight rates to continue to decline in the second half of September [7]. - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to go short on the October contract and roll the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8].