蛋白数据日报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Due to the support of import costs from the US market and premiums, the downside space of NO1 is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the results of the USDA September report. The domestic spot market has a serious phenomenon of spot delivery, and the spot basis is weak. The short - term market will adjust in a volatile manner, and it is advisable to go long on dips [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis Data - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian is -8, with a change of -22; in Tianjin it is -68, with a change of -42; in Rizhao it is -108, with a change of -22; in Zhangjiagang it is -58, with a change of -22; in Dongguan it is -128, with a change of -42; in Zhanjiang it is -68, with a change of -22; in Fangcheng it is -88, with a change of -22. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 56, with a change of 15. The M1 - 5 spread is 279, with a change of 11 [6] Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread is 147, with a change of 19. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal on the main contract is 521, with a change of -12 [7] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.0813. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium (in cents per bushel) and the import soybean disk gross profit (in yuan per ton) are presented in the report. The US soybean yield per acre in the USDA August report was raised from 52.5 to 53.6 bushels per acre, and the planted area in the 25/26 year was unexpectedly reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 year was reduced to 290 million bushels, and the supply - demand balance sheet of new US soybean crops is tight. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans this week dropped to 65% [7] Inventory Data - The soybean inventory at Chinese ports and the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills are presented in the report. The soybean inventory in China has increased to a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has risen. The inventory level is lower than the same period last year, but it is still expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has increased [7][8] Supply and Demand - In September, the expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans is over 10 million tons, and the soybean meal is still expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start de - stocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. In terms of demand, the high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, but policy guidance controls pig inventory and weight, which is expected to affect the long - term pig supply. The price - to - value ratio of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [7][8]