Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No mention of the industry investment rating is found in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market has complex supply - demand situations. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to have different trends, with alumina in a weak oscillation and Shanghai aluminum recommended to be bought on dips, waiting for demand fulfillment in the peak season. In the long - term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to rise with the arrival of the downstream consumption peak season [38][39]. - The new energy sector is weak this week. Lithium carbonate and polysilicon prices have declined. Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak oscillation in the short - term, and polysilicon is in an expected game situation with high inventory currently and potential supply reduction in the future [40]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The CU2510 futures contract rose from 80140 to 81060 (up 1.15%), and the Shanghai spot 1 copper average price increased from 79970 to 80970 (up 1.25%) [2]. - Aluminum: The AL2510 futures contract rose from 20695 to 21120 (up 2.05%), and the Shanghai spot A00 aluminum average price increased from 20650 to 21030 (up 1.84%) [2]. - Zinc: The ZN2510 futures contract rose from 22155 to 22305 (up 0.68%), and the Shanghai spot 0 zinc average price increased from 22040 to 22250 (up 0.95%) [2]. - Lead: The PB2510 futures contract rose from 16900 to 17040 (up 0.83%), and the 1 lead ingot average price increased from 16725 to 16775 (up 0.30%) [2]. - Nickel: The NI2510 futures contract rose from 121310 to 121980 (up 0.55%), and the 1 electrolytic nickel average price increased from 121700 to 122850 (up 0.94%) [2]. - Alumina: The AO2601 futures contract fell from 3006 to 2914 (down 3.06%), and the Foshan spot alumina price decreased from 3200 to 3140 (down 1.88%) [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The SI2511 futures contract fell from 8820 to 8745 (down 0.85%), and the 553 silicon average price increased from 9300 to 9400 (up 1.08%) [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The LC2511 futures contract fell from 74260 to 71160 (down 4.17%), and the battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased from 75400 to 72398 (down 3.98%) [2]. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 futures contract fell from 56735 to 53610 (down 5.51%), and the N - type polysilicon material price decreased from 51600 to 51550 (down 0.10%) [2]. 3.2 Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of September 12, SHFE copper inventory was 94,100 tons (+12,200 tons, +14.90% week - on - week), LME copper inventory was 153,900 tons (-4,100 tons, -2.59% week - on - week), and COMEX copper inventory was 309,800 tons (+7,100 tons, +2.35% week - on - week) [9][10]. - Zinc: As of September 12, LME zinc inventory was 50,500 tons (-3,500 tons, -6.48% week - on - week), and SHFE zinc inventory was 45,900 tons (+5,100 tons, +12.5% week - on - week) [19]. - Alumina: As of September 12, SHFE alumina inventory was 138,700 tons (+26,400 tons week - on - week) [26]. - Aluminum: As of September 12, LME aluminum inventory was 485,200 tons (+600 tons week - on - week), SHFE aluminum inventory was 128,500 tons (+4,421 tons week - on - week), and COMEX aluminum inventory was 8,912 metric tons (-599 metric tons week - on - week) [33][34]. 3.3 Metal Ore Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper Concentrate: As of September 11, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 40.50 dollars/ton, rising to 0.1 dollars/ton weekly, with a tight supply expectation at the mine end [13]. - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of September 12, the CIF China index was 842 dollars/ton, down 29 dollars from September 5 [16]. - Zinc Concentrate: As of September 12, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 95 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars from last week [20]. 3.4 Supply - Side Situations of Metals - Aluminum Raw Materials: The supply of bauxite has a multi - factor game. Domestic production has decreased, and imported bauxite arrivals have declined due to the rainy season in Guinea. However, high inventory and reduced profit margins of alumina limit the acceptance of high - priced bauxite. Short - term bauxite prices are expected to be in a strong oscillation [23]. - Alumina: The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has continued to increase. With an overall surplus, the inventory is still piling up [24][26]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The start - up rate remains high due to high profits, but future increments are limited by industrial red lines. The market has low available primary aluminum inventory [31]. 3.5 Demand - Side Situations of Metals - In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also had significant year - on - year growth, with new energy vehicle sales accounting for 48.8% of total new vehicle sales [36]. - From January to July, housing new construction and completion areas decreased year - on - year. The cumulative power generation installed capacity increased year - on - year, with significant growth in wind power and photovoltaic. However, the new photovoltaic installation scale in July decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [37]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - Aluminum: Short - term, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and Shanghai aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, waiting for demand fulfillment in the peak season. Long - term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to rise with the arrival of the downstream consumption peak season [38][39]. - New Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak oscillation in the short - term, and polysilicon is in an expected game situation with high inventory currently and potential supply reduction in the future [40].
有色金属周度报告-20250912
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-12 12:32