10Y国债收益率：信贷与社融环比双增长

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, there was a month - on - month double increase in credit and social financing. The new RMB loans were 0.59 trillion yuan, 0.64 trillion yuan more than the previous month, and the increment of social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, 1.44 trillion yuan more than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 balance at the end of August 2025 remained at 8.8%, a high in the past about 20 months [1]. - In the long run, the credit growth rate is likely to decline, related to China's economic growth rate change and the increase of the proportion of direct financing. In the medium and short term, the credit growth reading is likely to decline due to factors such as the replacement of local government implicit debts, which is beneficial to economic growth [3]. - The trend of the bill market interest rate can reflect the credit growth situation. The bill market interest rate has both capital and credit attributes. The trend of the bill market interest rate in the second half of this month may indicate that banks controlled the credit investment intensity during this period [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Credit and Social Financing Growth - In August 2025, there was a month - on - month double increase in credit and social financing, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 balance remained at a high level, marking a successful end to the recent credit control work [1]. - The "double increase" is largely due to the earlier issuance rhythm and increased intensity of government bonds. In the first 8 months of this year, the government bond financing in the social financing caliber was 10.28 trillion yuan, 4.64 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - When analyzing the scale of funds provided by the financial system to the real economy, it is advisable to use the more comprehensive social financing scale indicator, especially at the current stage of large - scale debt resolution by local governments [2]. Credit Growth Trend - In the long run, the credit growth rate is likely to decline, related to China's economic growth rate change and the increase of the proportion of direct financing. In the medium and short term, the credit growth reading is likely to decline due to factors such as the replacement of local government implicit debts, which is beneficial to economic growth [3]. - It is recommended to focus on broader financial aggregate indicators such as social financing during this period. The replacement of implicit debts has a basically neutral direct impact on the overall social financing [3]. Relationship between Bill Market Interest Rate and Credit Growth - The bill market interest rate has both capital and credit attributes. The trend of the bill market interest rate in the second half of the month can better reflect the bank's orientation in adjusting the credit scale. The slight increase in the bill market interest rate in the second half of this month may indicate that banks controlled the credit investment intensity [4].