格林大华期货鸡蛋季报：现货涨幅有限，鸡蛋高空思路不变

Report Overview - Report title: "上方压力显现 玉米重回区间运行 会议预期扰动 生猪期货近弱远强 现货涨幅有限 鸡蛋高空思路不变" [2] - Report date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun [3] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: The upward pressure on the corn futures market has emerged, and the market has returned to the range-bound operation. Traders are advised to take profits on long positions and consider short positions or stay on the sidelines [4][5]. - Hog: The short - term market sentiment is affected by the upcoming industry meeting, but the supply - demand logic will still dominate the near - month contracts. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts and focus on the change in sow inventory in the far - month contracts [9][10][11]. - Egg: The short - term increase in egg prices is limited, and the strategy of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged until large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs [15][16][17]. Summary by Commodity Corn Important Information - On September 12, the prices at the north - south ports were stable, with the purchase price at Jinzhou Port being 2240 - 2260 yuan/ton and the transaction price at Shekou Port being 2370 yuan/ton [4]. - On September 12, the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises showed mixed trends. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2205 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, while that in North China was 2374 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [4]. - On September 12, the transaction rate of imported corn auctions organized by China Grain Reserves Network was 34%, up from 26% in the previous period [4]. - As of September 11, the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong turned positive, reaching +50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - As of September 12, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4420 to 47454 [4]. - As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the grain inventory at Guangzhou Port was 1.853 million tons, up 1.70% month - on - month and 14.59% year - on - year. Corn inventory was 617,000 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month but up 64.53% year - on - year [5]. Market Logic - In the short term, the price in Northeast China has stabilized and strengthened while that in North China has weakened. The lower support for the market is the port price equivalent to the new - season corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - In the medium term, trading should focus on the drivers of the new - season corn, and a wide - range trading strategy should be adopted [5]. - In the long term, the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [5]. Trading Strategy - On the night of Monday this week, it was suggested to take profits on long positions in contracts 2511 and 2601. On Tuesday morning, it was recommended to stay on the sidelines or take short positions. Currently, the view remains unchanged. The first support for contract 2511 is 2190, and the second support is 2150. The support for contract 2601 is in the range of 2150 - 2160 [5]. Hog Important Information - On September 12, the national average hog price was 13.29 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak and stable on the morning of September 13 [9]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows in stock was 40.42 million, 103.64% of the normal level. The number of sows culled by large - scale pig farms in July increased by 2.1% month - on - month [9]. - On September 12, the price difference between fat and standard hogs was 0.22 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - On September 11, the average weekly slaughter weight of hogs was 124.32 kg, up 0.66 kg from the previous week [9]. - On September 12, the number of hog futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 428 [9]. - The Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation for enterprises on September 16 [9]. Market Logic - In the short term, the weak supply - demand relationship is pressuring the hog price to run weakly, and the upcoming industry meeting will affect the short - term market sentiment [10]. - In the medium term, the increase in the number of newborn piglets from February to June implies an expected increase in hog supply in the second half of the year, limiting the upside potential of the hog price [10]. - In the long term, the number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - After the impact of the meeting fades, the near - month contracts will follow the supply - demand logic. Traders should look for short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts should focus on the expected difference in sow culling driven by policies. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for different contracts [11]. Egg Important Information - On September 12, egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The average price in the main production areas was 3.55 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.9 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin [15]. - On September 12, the inventory levels were basically stable, with the average production - link inventory being 0.91 days and the circulation - link inventory being 0.99 days [15]. - On September 12, the average price of old hens was 4.52 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of September 11, the average culling age of old hens was 495 days, unchanged from the previous week [15]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock was about 1.365 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 5.98%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in stock in September is 1.353 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [15]. Market Logic - In the medium and short term, the start of school and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the spot price to be stable and slightly strong. However, the lower - than - expected culling of hens and high cold - storage egg inventory limit the upside potential of the price [16]. - In the long term, the focus is on the extent of hen culling. If the egg - laying chicken farming profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [16]. Trading Strategy - The strategy of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged until large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs. Specific pressure levels are provided for different contracts. In addition, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities in contracts 2607 and 2608 to lock in breeding profits [17].