Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Report Date: 9/12/2025 - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Mid - long term: The rebar 01 contract mainly oscillated at a low level this week. Steel mills have fully resumed production, and the supply of rebar is expected to increase. The PPI continued to decline in August but the decline narrowed, the PMI data was still below the boom - bust line, and the real estate data remained weak, lacking support on the finished product demand side. The new policy proposed by the Guinean government regarding the Simandou iron ore development has a shrinking impact. The daily average hot metal output has significantly increased, strengthening the support on the iron ore demand side, and it will continue to oscillate in the short term. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, the weekly output increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the demand side recovered slowly. For soda ash, the factory inventory continued to decline, with mainly rigid demand procurement from downstream, and the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract oscillated weakly and steadily [64][68]. - Short term: Recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Pay attention to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". This week, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash improved limitedly, and the disk continued to consolidate at the bottom [65][69]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3143.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3127.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 16.0 (-0.5%), the spot price was 3220.0, and the basis was 93.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 3340.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3364.0 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 24.0 (0.7%), the spot price was 3400.0, and the basis was 36.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 789.5 on 9/5/2025 to 799.5 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 10.0 (1.3%), the spot price was 796.0, and the basis was - 3.5 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1646.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1625.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 21.0 (-1.3%), the spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 5.5 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1158.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1144.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 14.0 (-1.2%), the spot price was 1280.0, and the basis was 135.5 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1189.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1180.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 9.0 (-0.8%), the spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 60.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1302.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1290.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 12.0 (-0.9%), the spot price was 1280.9, and the basis was - 9.1 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On September 11, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with September 4 [7]. - Supply: As of 9/12/2025, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons; the rebar output was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [12]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 91,912 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the social inventory of rebar was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons compared with the previous week; the factory inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of September 5, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.7562 million tons, a decrease of 800,600 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 2.5729 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.45612 million tons, an increase of 30,400 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 8.99305 million tons, an increase of 53,180 tons [30]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 344,390 tons, an increase of 14,060 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 112,400 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of September 12, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 225, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1.121225 million tons, an increase of 4,200 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points; the start - up rate was 76.01%, the same as last week [38]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the factory inventory of float glass was 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.467 million weight boxes compared with September 5; the available days of factory inventory were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days compared with the previous week [43]. - Demand: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.29%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 761,100 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons compared with the previous week [52]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons compared with the previous week [57]. - Sales - to - production ratio: As of September 12, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points compared with the previous week [61].
黑色系周度报告-20250912
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-12 12:55