油脂周报：政策扰动较多，油脂有所分化-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased as expected and inventories accumulated. Production in September is expected to decline, while the spot prices in the producing areas remain stable. Soybean oil is affected by the expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support for soybean oil is strong. Chinese rapeseed oil continues to see a marginal reduction in inventories, which supports the rapeseed oil price. There is still uncertainty in the policy as Canada is considering exempting or reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China's relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [5][29]. - The short - term oil market lacks obvious drivers and is in a bottom - grinding stage. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events and Market Review - MPOB's August palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August reached 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, exports dropped to 1.32 million tons, and apparent consumption increased to 0.49 million tons. SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and ITS estimates that exports in the same period decreased by 1% month - on - month [4][5]. - This week, the oil futures market showed differentiation. Soybean and palm oil mainly oscillated and declined, while rapeseed oil oscillated and rose slightly [5]. International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil: In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, and the ending inventory reached 2.2 million tons, a 4% increase month - on - month. Exports were lower than expected. SPPOMA data shows that production in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline by about 4% in September. ITS estimates a 1% month - on - month decrease in exports in the first 10 days of September. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the overall spot price in the producing areas remains firm [11]. - US Biodiesel Policy: There were many rumors about the US SRE this week. The news is unfavorable to the supply of US biodiesel, resulting in weaker demand for soybean oil and a downward trend in US soybean oil. The production and blending profits of US biodiesel this year are poor, and the use of soybean oil in biodiesel is lower than last year. The D4 rins price has weakened recently and fell below $1 as of September 9th [14]. Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 619,300 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week. The import profit margin was around - 200 yuan, and there was one near - month purchase this week. After the futures price decline, spot trading increased significantly, with a cumulative trading volume of about 14,000 tons. The short - term palm oil market lacks obvious drivers and will maintain an oscillating trend. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches as the negative factors are gradually decreasing [19]. - Soybean Oil: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 1.2513 million tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous week. The basis in East China remained stable at 01 + 210. The soybean import volume in August was 12.28 million tons, and it is expected to decline to about 10 million tons in September. The soybean crush will gradually decline, and soybean oil inventory may start to decrease slightly. Affected by the US biodiesel policy, the short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support is strong. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [24]. - Rapeseed Oil: As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 635,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price declined, and the import profit margin narrowed to around - 400 yuan. There was a rumor of a rapeseed oil purchase from Dubai this week. The spot market was weak, but the basis and the monthly spread increased. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. The entry of Australian rapeseed into the Chinese market is still uncertain. Continued marginal reduction in inventories supports the rapeseed oil price. It is necessary to continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [27]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The content mainly includes various data charts of international and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil production, exports, inventories, consumption, and basis, etc., but no specific data analysis conclusions are provided in the text [34][40][45]