纯苯：苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is expected to face a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with weak fundamentals and difficulty in inventory reduction. Without macro - level positive factors, its price is likely to fluctuate weakly. The styrene market has seen a reduction in supply in September due to increased maintenance, but faces challenges such as high inventory, slow terminal order recovery, and weak confidence in the peak season. The absolute prices of both pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows, showing undervaluation but high inventory. Short - term market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range for pure benzene is predicted to be 5600 - 6200 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3]. - Hedging Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short styrene futures (EB2510, sell, 25%, entry range: 7300 - 7400 yuan/ton) to lock in profits and sell call options (EB2510C7200, sell, 50%, entry range: 15 - 30) to reduce capital costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy styrene futures (EB2510, buy, 50%, entry range: 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (EB2510P7000, sell, 75%, entry range: 35 - 50) to reduce procurement costs [3]. Market Situation Analysis - Core Contradictions: Pure benzene has an unfavorable supply - demand situation, and styrene has issues such as high inventory and slow terminal order recovery. Both markets need macro - level policies or unplanned production cuts to change the situation [4]. - Leveraging Factors: No relevant information provided. - Negative Factors: - The price of crude oil, a cost - end factor, has weakened significantly due to production - increase news [6]. - New production capacity of pure benzene is being added, while downstream demand is decreasing. For example, a 23 - ton pure benzene cracking unit in Shandong will be put into production in mid - September, and a 9 - ton pure benzene reforming unit in Hebei is planned to be put into production at the end of September. There are also new styrene production units coming online, and the monthly production schedule of major white goods is not optimistic [9]. Market Data - Inventory: As of September 8, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 17.65 tons, a decrease of 2 tons (- 10.18%) from the previous period, mainly due to fewer arriving ships in the previous period [8]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides detailed data on the daily changes in the basis of pure benzene and styrene, as well as the price spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain [10][11]. - Industrial Chain Prices: It shows the price data of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain from September 5 to September 12, 2025, including crude oil, naphtha, pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products, as well as the profit data of some products [12][13].