Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, and the focus is on the delivery of new apples. New late Fuji apples may have a high opening price due to small fruit sizes, but it's uncertain if the price will keep rising. There may be a polarization of high - quality apples with high prices and low - quality apples with low prices [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and potential overall quality - related yield reduction. Bearish factors include less - than - expected yield reduction, price differences between high - and low - quality early - maturing apples, and a slowdown in inventory decline [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for apples is 8100 - 8700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 41.5% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: - For those worried about low apple purchase prices due to a potential new apple harvest, they can sell AP2510 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 8500 - 8600 range to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell AP2511C8600 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 30 - 40 range to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the price rises [3]. - Procurement Management: - For those worried about high apple purchase prices due to a decline in old - crop inventory and potential new - crop yield reduction, they can buy AP2510 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 8300 - 8400 range to lock in purchase costs. They can also buy AP2511P8100 put options at a 75% hedging ratio in the 70 - 80 range to collect premiums and lock in the buying price if the price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On September 12, 2025, AP01 closed at 8329 with a daily increase of 0.93% and a weekly increase of 0.40%. AP10 closed at 8438 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.68%. The spot prices of various apple grades remained unchanged on that day. The daily increase of the盘面 profit was 6.01%, and the weekly decrease was 6.81% [6]. Apple Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 20.91, with a weekly decrease of 6.44. The national cold - storage inventory according to Zhuochuang on September 4 was 30.62, with a weekly decrease of 4.73. The inventory in some production areas like Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased, while the inventory in Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning was zero. The arrival volume of apples at some Guangdong wholesale markets increased [10].
苹果产业风险管理日报-20250912
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-12 13:35