Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, leading to a rise in global risk appetite. Domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are also increasing, with the trading logic focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different outlooks: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals, energy - chemicals, and glass are likely to oscillate; non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be slightly stronger; and agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand factors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Overseas: US August CPI reached a new high this year, and initial jobless claims soared. The market fully prices in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are on the rise [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals may oscillate; non - ferrous metals may be slightly stronger; energy - chemicals may oscillate; precious metals may be strong at high levels [2]. Stock Index - Driven by semiconductor, AI, and consumer electronics sectors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. With improved fundamentals, increased policy expectations, and reduced external risks, short - term market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The spot market is weak, with low trading volume. Demand varies by product, with hot - rolled coil demand rising by 208,000 tons and rebar demand falling by 40,000 tons. Supply is increasing, and cost support is strengthening. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - Iron Ore: Prices slightly declined. After the military parade, steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore supply has decreased. The market is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating. Production in different regions has different trends, and the market is in a state of game [6]. - Soda Ash: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - Glass: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and profits have slightly increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: CPI data meets expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation is rising. Domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the short - term interest - rate cut expectation may support prices [8]. - Aluminum: Prices are rising, and inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is supported by the interest - rate cut expectation, and the medium - term upward space is limited [8][9]. - Aluminum Alloy: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - Tin: Supply is affected by maintenance and tight mines, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price rose, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating due to the possible resumption of a lithium mine [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The price rose, and the market is expected to be slightly stronger due to the industry conference and high - level oscillation of polysilicon [10]. - Polysilicon: The price rose, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Energy - Chemicals - Methanol: Port spot prices are strong, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply pressure and potential demand improvement [12][13]. - PP: The market is in consolidation. Supply has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly with policy support [13]. - LLDPE: The price is adjusted. Supply will increase after maintenance, and demand is slowly rising. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. - Urea: The market is weak. Supply is under pressure, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to decline further [15]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The area of drought - affected soybean - growing regions in the US has expanded, and the probability of La Nina in the fourth quarter has increased to 71%. The market is affected by expected yield and export adjustments [16]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Rapeseed meal has potential for upward movement [17]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The price of US soybean oil rose. Domestic oil prices are in narrow - range adjustment, and rapeseed oil has a strong sentiment of reluctant to sell [17]. - Palm Oil: The price rose slightly, but inventory is high, and export demand is weak [18]. - Corn: The new - season corn price is expected to increase slightly, and farmers may be reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - Pigs: Pig prices have stabilized after a decline. The supply is expected to increase in September, and prices may be under pressure in October - November [19].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250912
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-09-12 02:25