国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each product [2]. - The performance of different products varies, with some in a state of shock, some showing a downward trend, and others with potential investment opportunities in spread trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Oil prices are falling, and valuations are dropping again. It is recommended to take a long - short spread position between the November and January contracts. The PXN compression space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on PX and short on Brent [4][12]. - PTA: Cost support is weak. It is advisable to take a long - short spread position between the November and January contracts. The PTA processing fee is difficult to expand, and attention should be paid to the compression of the PTA01/05 processing fee [5][12]. - MEG: The market is concerned about the new capacity of Yulong Petrochemical. It is recommended to take a short - long spread position between the January and May contracts. The spot price is in a weak shock state [5][13]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is in a wide - range shock state. The trading volume has increased, and the position of the top 20 members' net short has decreased [14][15]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is under shock pressure, and in the medium term, it oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. Although the fundamentals face pressure, there are some positive expectations [20][23]. 3.4 Asphalt - Crude oil prices have fallen, and many regions are accelerating inventory reduction. The overall trend is neutral [24]. 3.5 LLDPE - In the medium term, it is in a shock market. Although demand is improving, the "Golden September" demand peak has not been fully realized, and the market is in a state of shock [39][40]. 3.6 PP - In the short term, it is in a shock state, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious [43][44]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short positions. Currently, the market is in a wide - range shock, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient [47][48]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillating operation state. The futures market is affected by the chemical sector, and the demand side is weak, while the international market provides cost support [52][56]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market price is slightly weaker, with supply pressure increasing and demand improvement insufficient [57][58]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is in an oscillating operation state. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from the supply side, but there is also support from positive expectations and policies [60][63]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is in a weak shock state. In the short term, it is under shock pressure, and in the medium term, the trend is still weak. Export growth may not be able to make up for the weak domestic demand [65][68]. 3.12 Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the medium term. The cost center has moved down, and the short - term downward space has opened up [69][70]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market for soda ash has changed little. The market is weakly stable, and prices are expected to be weakly sorted in the short term [71]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG: Affected by the expectation of oversupply, the night - session oil price has declined [73]. - Propylene: Supply and demand are tight, and spot transactions are rising [74]. 3.15 PVC - PVC is in a low - level shock state. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export growth rate may slow down [83][85]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The night - session price has weakened significantly, and the price center continues to decline [87]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the decline of crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market fluctuates narrowly [87]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is under pressure. Freight rates are showing a downward trend [89].