国信期货甲醇周报：供需双降，甲醇震荡筑底-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of methanol show a double - decline in supply and demand, and it is expected to gradually oscillate and bottom out [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Market Review - 1.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the methanol main contract MA2601 on Friday was 2,379 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1%, an increase of 20,000 lots in positions, and a total position of 798,000 lots. The port basis continued to rise but remained at a discount [7]. - 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Spreads between Production and Sales Areas - Coastal methanol prices rebounded slightly from the low level this week, while the inland methanol market rose overall. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,280 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.95%. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 2,097 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.22%. The market trading center shifted upward [12]. - 1.3 Methanol Overseas Prices and Domestic - Overseas Spreads - For overseas markets, the reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - future was 253 - 265 US dollars/ton, and the reference negotiation price for Iranian cargoes was +0 - 0.5%. The European and American methanol markets were stable. The reference price in Europe was 295 - 296 euros/ton, and in the US it was 96 - 98 cents/gallon [15]. 3.2 Part 2: Methanol Fundamental Analysis - 2.1 Methanol Operating Rate - As of September 11, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 72.75%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points from last week and 0.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 79.54%, a decrease of 3.06 percentage points from last week and 3.7 percentage points from the same period last year [19]. - 2.2 Methanol Import and Export Volume - The import arbitrage window was closed, while the re - export arbitrage window remained open [22]. - 2.3 Methanol Port Inventory - This week, the coastal methanol inventory was 1.508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 109,500 tons and a rise of 7.83%. The estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area was around 826,000 tons. The expected arrival volume of imported vessels in mid - to - late September was about 840,000 tons [25]. - 2.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas - The international natural gas price was around 2.9 US dollars/MMBtu, and the import cost of natural - gas - based methanol was around 1,530 yuan/ton [28]. - 2.5 Methanol's Upstream - Coal - This week, the domestic thermal coal market in the production areas was stable and rising. The theoretical profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia increased significantly compared with last week [31]. - 2.6 Methanol's Downstream Prices and Operating Rates - In terms of demand, the overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was 71.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was 56.3%, a month - on - month increase of 2% [33]. - 2.7 Methanol's Downstream - Traditional Downstream - No specific summary content other than data charts was provided. - 2.8 Methanol's Downstream - MTO - This week, the average operating load of methanol - to - olefin plants was 77.42%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points from last week. The average load of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol was 69.06%, a decrease of 9.75 percentage points from last week [45]. 3.3 Part 3: Future Outlook - 3. Methanol Future Outlook - The stocking demand in coastal areas in September was fair, and the positive long - term expectations supported the overall sentiment. The inventory of inland production enterprises was low, and some olefin enterprises continued to purchase. The overall fundamentals of methanol showed a double - decline in supply and demand, and it was expected to gradually oscillate and bottom out [48].