强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The convertible bond market shows a co - existence of a "strong redemption trigger wave" and "non - exercise of rights." In 2025, the number of strong redemptions triggered in the first three quarters far exceeded that of the whole year of 2024, and the proportion of non - redemptions in the third quarter was nearly 80%. There are many convertible bonds meeting the strong redemption price conditions, and the subsequent trigger frequency will remain high. The game of strong redemption clauses has significant returns and a relatively high winning rate. From 2023 to August 2025, the convertible bond cases that waived strong redemption could achieve a 6.27% valuation increase and a 6.77% average return, with a 4 - day comprehensive winning rate of 67.4%, and the winning rate on T + 1 day was the highest, reaching 71.5% [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Re - understanding of the Strong Redemption Clause - Meaning of the Strong Redemption Clause: Promoting Conversion - The strong redemption clause, also known as the conditional redemption clause, encourages creditors to convert shares as soon as possible, shortens the convertible bond's duration, and is a protective clause for the issuer. Most convertible bonds are delisted through strong redemption, which makes holders convert shares quickly [8]. - One of the Motivations for Implementing Strong Redemption: Avoiding Repayment Risks - In the current market environment, due to the downturn of the underlying stock market in the past two years, most convertible bonds have little chance to reach the strong redemption condition, and the issuer's concern about future debt repayment risks has increased. A typical case shows that when the issuer cannot achieve strong redemption and promote conversion, it has to repay the debt at maturity, which is the last thing the issuer wants to see [9]. - Game of the Strong Redemption Clause and the Issuer's Considerations - The essence of the strong redemption game is the investor's prediction of the issuer's behavior. When the issuer faces the trigger of the strong redemption of convertible bonds, it needs to consider complex issues. The benefits of strong redemption include saving subsequent financial costs, reducing asset - liability ratio, and increasing annual earnings in accounting. The concerns include the dilution effect on the underlying stock, the need to freeze funds, taking care of new investors' emotions, and maintaining market popularity [13]. 2. Acceleration of Strong Redemption Triggers in the Context of a Stronger Equity Market - Frequent Triggering of Clauses and an Increase in the Probability of Non - Exercise - In 2025, the equity market recovery promoted the rise of the underlying stock price, triggering a sharp increase in the number of convertible bonds' strong redemption clauses. The number of strong redemptions triggered in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 122, far exceeding 107 in the whole year of 2024. The proportion of non - redemptions in the third quarter of 2025 was nearly 80%, creating space for the game of strong redemption clauses [15]. - A Considerable Number of Future Strong Redemption Triggers - There are still a large number of convertible bonds meeting the strong redemption price conditions, and the number is at a high level in recent years. The length of the recounting period in non - redemption announcements has been significantly shortened. If the equity market maintains the current level, the subsequent trigger frequency of strong redemption clauses will remain the same. In August, the number of convertible bonds meeting the strong redemption price conditions reached a high of 125, and then dropped to 110 at the beginning of September. Since 2023, in the triggering cases, the proportion of those with a 3 - month recounting period was 53.4%, and in 2025, the proportion of cases with a 3 - month recounting period increased to 68.0% [18]. - Impact of Strong Redemption on Convertible Bond Valuation: Elimination and Re - establishment of Premium Rate - When the underlying stock price approaches the strong redemption price, the conversion premium rate will gradually compress, and the compression speed is positively correlated with the upward speed of the underlying stock price. Once the issuer waives strong redemption, the convertible bond will be given a certain option value again, and the valuation will increase. For convertible bonds that choose to implement strong redemption, the conversion premium rate is compressed to around 1% 4 trading days before the announcement, and finally becomes zero. For those that choose not to redeem, the premium rate stops falling at around 4% and rebounds to about 9% within 3 trading days after the non - redemption announcement [20]. - Suggestion for Gaming Strong Redemption: Significant Returns and Worth Considering - The game of strong redemption is feasible. Investors can predict the issuer's strong redemption willingness based on factors such as the remaining term of the convertible bond, the company's asset - liability status, and whether there was a previous downward revision. The best participation time is T - 1 day of the announcement, and the best selling time is T + 3 day. From 2023 to August 2025, for convertible bond cases that waived strong redemption, an average valuation increase of 6.27% and an average return of 6.77% could be obtained, with a 4 - day comprehensive winning rate of 67.4%, and the winning rate on T + 1 day was the highest, reaching 71.5%. The pre - announcement conversion premium rate can be used as a reference factor for judging whether a convertible bond will be strongly redeemed [34].