Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-14 05:41Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has strengthened, leading to upward price movements in both industrial and precious metals [1][2] - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the recent price reaching 80,810 CNY/ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1] - Aluminum prices have also increased, with the Shanghai aluminum price at 21,075 CNY/ton, supported by stable production and improved demand from the automotive sector [1][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases due to soft labor market signals and expectations of continued central bank purchases [2][27] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have rebounded due to reduced market supply and stable demand, with domestic copper inventory at 149,000 tons [1][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased due to stable supply and improved demand, with LME aluminum inventory rising to 485,300 tons [1][22][23] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have risen, with gold averaging 821.23 CNY/g and silver at 9,773 CNY/kg, supported by macroeconomic factors [2][27] 2. Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices have shown mixed trends, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 286,500 CNY/ton, while market sentiment remains cautious [3][61] - Rare Earths: Prices have stabilized, with light rare earth oxide at 575,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [4] 3. Market Predictions - Copper: Expected to maintain a high level of volatility, with prices projected to range between 79,600-81,000 CNY/ton [14] - Aluminum: Anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 20,400-21,000 CNY/ton [23] - Precious Metals: Gold prices are expected to range between 800-840 CNY/g, while silver is projected to be between 9,000-9,900 CNY/kg [28]