海外利率周报20250914：通胀符合预期，长短端交易模式分化-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation in the US is in line with expectations, and the trading patterns of short - and long - term bonds are differentiated. The market expects a 25bp interest rate cut in the September meeting and three rate cuts throughout the year. In the European and Japanese markets, Japanese bonds are stable, while German bonds rise due to hawkish signals. In other major asset classes, global stock indices generally rise except for Russia, cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally in commodities, and there are significant differences in the performance of different currencies against the RMB [4][22][23]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Week's Overseas Macro - Interest Rate Review 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - Employment: The US employment market shows further signs of weakness. The number of initial jobless claims increases by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 [1][12]. - Inflation: The US PPI unexpectedly drops month - on - month in August, with service costs falling by 0.2%. The core CPI remains high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year of 3.1% in August. The overall CPI rises more than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year of 2.9% in August [2][13]. - Business Index: The US EIA crude oil inventory data shows an unexpected increase. The inventory increases by 3.939 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, against the market expectation of a 1.9 - million - barrel decrease [3][14]. 3.1.2 Review of Major Overseas Market Interest Rates - US: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bond rates fluctuate by +1bp and - 4bp to 3.66% and 4.06% respectively. The long - and short - term trading patterns are differentiated. The long - term is traded around the recession narrative, and the short - term is traded around the expectation of the number and amplitude of interest rate cuts. The 3 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury auctions have strong, strong, and relatively stable demand respectively [4][15][16]. - Europe and Japan: Japanese bonds are stable, with the 1 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +0.9bp and +0.4bp to 0.70% and 1.59% respectively. German bonds rise due to hawkish signals from the European Central Bank, with the 2 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +6.00bp and - 1.00bp to 2.02% and 2.70% respectively [22]. 3.2 Review of Other Major Asset Classes - Equities: Global major stock indices generally rise, except for the Russian market. South Korea (+5.94%), Japan (+4.07%), and Hong Kong (+3.82%) perform strongly, while Russia (-2.13%) is the only market with negative growth [23]. - Commodities: Cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally. Bitcoin rises by 4.87%, London silver by 3.72%, and London gold by 1.57%. Some industrial products are under pressure, such as the pig index, rebar, coke, etc. [24]. - Foreign Exchange: European and Japanese currencies rise against the RMB, while the US dollar and most Asian currencies show small fluctuations. The Russian ruble drops significantly by 4.04% against the RMB [25]. 3.3 Market Tracking - Government Bond Interest Rates: The report shows the interest rate fluctuations of 1 - year and 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, Japan, Germany, etc. [33]. - Stock Indices: It presents the weekly and historical percentile changes of major global stock indices, showing that most markets are at relatively high historical levels [35]. - Commodities: It shows the price changes of major commodities and their historical percentile levels, indicating significant differentiation in performance [38]. - Foreign Exchange: It displays the exchange rate changes of major global currencies against the RMB and their historical percentile levels [40]. - Economic Data Panels: It includes economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, covering GDP, inflation, employment, and business sentiment indices [42][49][54].