镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险，不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The smelting end of nickel presents a clean range - bound trading logic, while the news front has high uncertainty and requires dynamic tracking. The short - term nickel price does not have a basis for a significant decline, but there is a long - term pressure expectation due to the commissioning of low - cost wet - process projects. [1] - For stainless steel, the short - term supply - demand situation and long - term contradictions are in a game, and the steel price will run in a range - bound manner. The short - term supply and demand lack drivers, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Indonesian nickel ore news has caused disturbances again. A 148 - hectare nickel mine in Weda Bay Nickel was taken over, accounting for about 0.3% of its total area, affecting a monthly nickel ore output of 600 metal tons. The Indonesian government has urged companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget starting from October 2025, which may strengthen the high - price support logic for the ore end. [1] - The short - term support for the smelting end lies in the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical integration, and the upper anchor is the relative valuation with ferronickel. The global visible inventory of pure nickel has increased, with a weekly increase of 0.98 million tons to 26.4 million tons, which still drags down the market. However, non - standard nickel shows a certain degree of destocking. [1] Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - The short - term supply and demand of stainless steel lack drivers. The demand growth rate has converged significantly compared with previous years, with the apparent demand growth rate dropping to 2.0%. The supply growth rate has also converged, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate falling to 2.4%. The import volume has decreased by 27% due to the production cut of an Indonesian steel mill, and the supply - demand mismatch has eased slightly. [2] - The supply elasticity may limit the upside space. The production schedule in September is expected to increase, with a 6% month - on - month increase to 3.45 million tons in China, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to be repaired to 3.2%. The profit of steel mills has been squeezed, and the cost support logic limits the downside space. [2] Inventory Changes - The social inventory of refined nickel in China has increased by 144 tons to 39,298 tons. The LME nickel inventory has increased by 9,666 tons to 225,084 tons. The SMM ferronickel inventory on August 31 was 29,267 tons, a 12% decrease from half a month ago and a 28% increase year - on - year. [3][4][5] - On September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0125 million tons, a 3.90% week - on - week decrease. The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports has increased by 779,300 wet tons to 13.8616 million wet tons. [5] Market News - Multiple Indonesian nickel - related projects have new developments, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron RKEF project, the suspension of production of EF lines in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the government's emphasis on resubmitting the 2026 RKAB budget. [6][7] - Some steel mills in Shandong have started maintenance, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coil. The Indonesian government will crack down on illegal mining, and a 148 - hectare nickel mine in Weda Bay Nickel was taken over, affecting a monthly output of 600 metal tons. [8][9] Weekly Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided, as well as data on import nickel, ferronickel, and other products in the industrial chain. [11]