碳酸锂：产量已超枧下窝停产前水平，偏弱判断

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Price Trend: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices first declined and then rebounded due to the expected resumption of production at Jianxiawo. The 2511 contract closed at 71,160 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 71,260 yuan/ton, down 3,060 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price decreased by 2,300 yuan/ton to 72,450 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Production has exceeded the level before the shutdown at Jianxiawo. Raw material shipments decreased while arrivals increased. Weekly production reached 19,963 tons, up 544 tons week-on-week. In September, lithium battery production is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a 5% month-on-month increase. Weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 139,000 tons, with upstream inventory at an absolute low and downstream inventory at an absolute high [2]. - Market Outlook: A weak outlook is expected. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was -100 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract price is expected to range between 61,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on inventory as the basis gradually recovers [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Price Tables: The report presents data on the spot market prices of the lithium industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, and battery products, showing price changes and percentages [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - Raw Material Situation: Hedland Port started its annual maintenance and dredging on September 12, expected to last 3 - 4 weeks. Last week, Australian ore shipments reached a record high of 157,000 - 207,000 tons, but this week it was 0 tons. In September, the known arrival of Australian ore from all countries was 388,000 tons, with 364,000 tons arriving in China, a week - on - week increase of about 100,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - Price and Production Graphs: Multiple graphs illustrate the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the production volume of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, and the monthly and weekly production and inventory of lithium carbonate [9][10][11][12][13]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - Production and Consumption Graphs: Graphs show the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, inventory available days, and the production and capacity utilization rates of lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [14][15][16].