白糖：基差偏空

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to operate weakly. The industry is in a pattern of strong current situation but weak expectations. The global sugar supply was in a large shortage in the 24/25 sugar season, while the north and south hemispheres are expected to have a restorative increase in production and inventory in the 25/26 sugar season. The New York raw sugar is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [3][30]. - The domestic sugar market has a bearish basis. In the 24/25 sugar season, the domestic market is expected to have continuous production increase and cost decrease, with tightened import policies for syrup and premixed powder. In the 25/26 sugar season, the sugar yield in Guangxi is expected to decline and the production cost to rise. Zhengzhou sugar futures will follow the trend of raw sugar, and the trading rhythm will revolve around the import rhythm [3][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.62 (previous value: 97.74), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.37 (previous value: 5.40) [6]. - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $62.6 per barrel (+1.02%) [6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 15.81 cents per pound (+1.48%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures is at 5,540 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton from last week; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [14]. - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 11,599 lots [14]. - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of September 9, long positions of funds decreased by 13,118 lots, short positions increased by 31,561 lots, and net long positions decreased by 44,679 lots year - on - year to - 152,698 lots, a significant decrease in net long positions [14]. 2.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: ISO expects a supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and 0.23 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season [19]. - Brazil: As of August 16, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 354 million tons, a 6.6% decrease from the same period last year; sugar production was 22.89 million tons, a 4.7% decrease; alcohol production was 16.07 billion liters, a 12% decrease; the cumulative sugar - using cane ratio was 52.51%, compared with 49.14% in the same period last year [19]. - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 sugar season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 34.9 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [19]. - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [20]. - China: CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in July 2025, 0.74 million tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season were 3.25 million tons [20]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: It is expected to operate weakly. Pay attention to the production and export rhythm in Brazil and relevant industrial policies in India [3][30]. - Domestic market: The basis is bearish. The trading rhythm will revolve around the import rhythm. Pay attention to the import situation of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder [3][30].