铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy is oscillating at a high level due to the continuous shortage of scrap aluminum supply, and the ADC12 - A00 spread has converged significantly [2][4]. - In the short term, driven by the gradually recovering demand in the peak season and cost - side support, the price of cast aluminum alloy may continue to oscillate at a high level. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved in the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the increase in enterprise orders is limited, and the performance of the peak season needs further observation. The supply - side start - up rate has slightly increased, but the market is waiting and seeing due to the uncertainty of the tax - refund cancellation policy. Some enterprises are purchasing at high prices across regions to ensure order delivery, and the raw material supply remains tight [6]. - The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has increased. As of September 12, the combined factory and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories increased by 14,400 tons to 131,300 tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory accumulation rate has increased. The supply shortage of raw materials has intensified due to the tight circulation of domestic and foreign scrap aluminum and increased demand. The domestic automobile sales in the last week of September decreased, but the "trade - in" policy is expected to boost automobile consumption, and the automobile sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The report presents data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads between different contracts (such as AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03), and capital precipitation in the cast aluminum alloy market [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of inter - period positive arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy is calculated. For the AD2511 and AD2512 contracts on September 12, 2025, the fixed cost is 5.28 yuan/ton, mainly including value - added tax on the spread and trading fees. The floating cost is 70.92 yuan/ton, including storage fees, capital costs for holding warehouse receipts, and futures capital costs. The total cost is 76 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of spot - futures arbitrage is calculated. Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, considering storage fees, capital costs, warehousing fees, inspection fees, trading fees, etc., the warehouse receipt cost is 20,815.9 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - The production of scrap aluminum is at a high level, and the social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The price spread between refined and scrap aluminum has shown a downward trend [16][21][25]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has converged significantly. The regional price spread of cast aluminum alloy has strengthened and shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum has rebounded, while the monthly start - up rate has slightly decreased. The production of recycled aluminum alloy has certain regional distribution characteristics. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently estimated to be above the break - even line. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased, while the social inventory accumulation rate has increased. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [33][38][43][48][53][58]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also presented. The production and factory inventory of recycled aluminum rods have certain regional distribution characteristics [60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected the die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are also provided, as well as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the automobile inventory warning index [66][67].