能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250914

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week's view on offset printing paper: The futures price is undervalued, and the overall driving force is bearish. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand remains weak. The paper price may decline next week, and the futures price may follow suit. The recommended strategy is to sell high [51]. Summary by Directory Industry News - Domestic double-offset paper inventory days increased by 0.87% week-on-week, with a narrower increase of 0.45 percentage points compared to last week. The supply pressure increased, but the downstream demand did not improve significantly, and the dealer inventory remained cautious [6]. - The domestic double-offset paper operating rate was 50.12%, a week-on-week increase of 1.90 percentage points, reversing the downward trend. Some production lines in Shandong and Henan resumed production or increased their operating rates [6]. - In July 2025, the total European port pulp inventory decreased by 1.91% month-on-month but increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Most European countries' port inventories decreased month-on-month [6]. Market Trends - The average price of 70g high-white double-offset paper on September 12 was 4,818.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and last week [9]. - The prices of various double-offset paper products in the Shandong and Guangdong spot markets remained unchanged week-on-week [10]. - In terms of cost and profit, the pre-tax and after-tax gross margins increased by 11 yuan and 10 yuan respectively week-on-week [10]. Supply and Demand Data - Industry Capacity: In 2024, the domestic double-offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [19]. - Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 168,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.1% [24]. - Weekly Sales and Inventory: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry sales were 165,300 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 355,400 tons [29]. - Imports and Exports: In July, the domestic double-offset paper imports were about 12,000 tons, and the exports were about 62,000 tons [36]. - Inventory: In August, the social and enterprise inventories of double-offset paper increased slightly [42]. - Terminal Consumption: In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [48]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestic production this week was 168,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.1%. In July, imports were about 12,000 tons, maintaining a low level [51]. - Demand: Domestic sales this week were 165,300 tons. In July, exports were about 62,000 tons [51]. - View: The double-offset paper futures market has been in a low-level shock. The lack of upward momentum is due to the lack of positive drivers. In the short term, the impact on the spot market is limited. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand remains weak. The paper price may decline, and the futures price may follow suit [51]. - Valuation: The current valuation does not provide delivery profits, and the overall valuation is low. The current futures price is close to the production cost of some less integrated enterprises [51]. - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to sell high [51].