能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the confidence of long - position holders in natural rubber was frustrated, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state before the holiday. Overseas raw material prices continued to decline slightly, weakening cost support. Although downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday and inventory continued to decline, after the market's upward movement was blocked, long - position sentiment declined, and bearish sentiment increased, driving rubber prices to decline in a volatile manner [92]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber export volume decreased by 22.8% year - on - year to 37,198 tons, while imports were 56,874 tons, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease. The total monitored production was 35,884 tons, a 5.5% year - on - year decrease, and the inventory was 171,061 tons, a 15.5% year - on - year increase. Domestic consumption increased by 6.7% year - on - year to 22,446 tons [5]. - In the first eight months of 2025, Cambodia's latex export volume decreased by 12% year - on - year to 183,910 tons, but domestic consumption increased by 89% to 75,523 tons [6]. - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with production and sales of 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase [7]. - In August 2025, China's passenger car retail volume reached 1.995 million, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative retail volume was 14.741 million, a 9.5% year - on - year increase [8]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and overseas markets declined synchronously, with standard rubber experiencing the largest decline. On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601.SHF, NR2601.SHF, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15,820 yuan/ton, 12,645 yuan/ton, 174.90 cents/kg, and 315.90 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of - 3.09%, - 4.20%, - 3.48%, and - 2.23% [10][12]. 3.3 Basis and Calendar Spread - As of September 12, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 820 yuan/ton, with a 11.35% month - on - month increase and a 46.93% year - on - year increase. The 01 - 05 calendar spread was - 20 yuan/ton, with a 50.00% month - on - month increase and an 87.10% year - on - year increase [16]. 3.4 Other Spreads - The spreads of RU - NR and RU - BR increased, while the spreads of NR - SGX TSR20 and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased. Non - standard basis: The offer price of imported rubber market rose and then fell this week, with the overall price center shifting up. The domestic natural rubber market had a warmer trading atmosphere [19][22]. - The spread of whole milk - Thai mixed decreased, and the spread of 3L - Thai mixed increased [25]. 3.5 Substitute Prices - The price of raw material butadiene weakened after the buying interest declined. The cost support for butadiene rubber weakened, and the spot - market trading was stagnant. The prices of private arbitrage resources were significantly lower than the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina. The prices in the futures and spot markets fell rapidly again at the end of the cycle [30]. 3.6 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR declined. As of September 12, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 11.58, a 4.71% month - on - month decrease; that of NR was 30.06, a 5.99% month - on - month decrease. The settled funds of RU were 5.63 billion yuan, a 12.99% month - on - month decrease; that of NR was 3.497 billion yuan, a 10.89% month - on - month decrease [34][37]. 3.7 Fundamental Data 3.7.1 Supply - Weather in Thai production areas: Rainfall in southern Thailand eased, while rainfall in northeastern Thailand increased [40]. - Weather in domestic production areas: Rainfall in Hainan improved at the end of the week, and rainfall in Yunnan increased slightly [44]. - Raw material prices: Raw material prices diverged. The price of Thai cup lump decreased, while the prices of Thai and Yunnan latex increased [45]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai latex and cup lump increased, and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factory and that for whole - milk factory decreased [53]. - Upstream processing profit: Processing profits generally declined [54]. - Thai exports: In July 2025, Thai natural rubber exports increased month - on - month. The export volume of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year, and the export volume of latex was at a low level year - on - year [57]. - Thai exports to China: In July 2025, the volume of Thai natural rubber exports to China increased slightly month - on - month, and the volume of smoked sheet exports to China increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [60]. - Indonesian exports: In August 2025, the volume of Indonesian natural rubber exports to China continued to grow rapidly. The export volumes of standard rubber and mixed rubber to China increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [63]. - Vietnamese exports: In July 2025, Vietnamese natural rubber exports increased seasonally and were at a relatively high level year - on - year. The export volumes of standard rubber and latex to China increased significantly [67]. - Cote d'Ivoire exports: In August 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high level year - on - year, and the export volume to China was also at a high level year - on - year [71]. - Rubber imports: In July 2025, China imported 474,800 tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a 2.47% month - on - month increase and a 1.91% year - on - year decrease. The import volume of Vietnamese mixed rubber increased seasonally, while the import volume of Vietnamese standard rubber decreased significantly [74]. 3.7.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the capacity utilization of Chinese tire sample enterprises increased significantly. The inventory of all - steel tires continued to decline, while the inventory of semi - steel tires rebounded slightly. As of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a 9.17% week - on - week increase; that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, an 8.50% week - on - week increase [79][80]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In July 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires were remarkable. The sales volume of heavy - trucks continued to recover both month - on - month and year - on - year in July, and the sales volume of passenger cars increased both month - on - month and year - on - year in August [84]. 3.7.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: As of September 5, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.258 million tons, a 0.57% month - on - month decrease. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, the inventory in Yunnan continued to accumulate, and the inventory of Vietnamese rubber changed little [85]. - Futures inventory: As of September 12, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 151,700 tons, a 6.47% week - on - week decrease; the futures - spot inventory was 191,900 tons, a 6.53% week - on - week decrease [89]. 3.8 This Week's View Summary - Supply: As of Friday, the price of Thai raw material latex was 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 51.7 Thai baht/kg. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.258 million tons, a 0.57% month - on - month decrease [92]. - Demand: This week, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a 5.69 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a 5.57 - percentage - point month - on - month increase [92]. - View: Overseas raw material prices continued to decline slightly, weakening cost support. Although downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday and inventory continued to decline, the long - position sentiment declined after the market's upward movement was blocked, and bearish sentiment increased. It is expected that the market will be mainly volatile before the holiday [92]. - Valuation: In terms of basis, the basis of whole milk and RU main contract was - 880 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease; the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract was - 980 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase [93]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Adopt a wait - and - see or short - on - rally approach for RU. Calendar spread: Adopt a reverse arbitrage approach for 20 - number rubber, going long on 01 and 03 contracts and short on 11 contract. Cross - commodity: Observe [93].