能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - arbitrage in the pulp market has reached a phased position, and attention should be paid to seasonal stabilization. After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [96][97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of September 11, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.418 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a 7.9% decline. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline [6][7]. - On September 3, 2025, the No. 1 line of the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation [7]. - On September 8, 2025, the household paper production line of the seventh factory in the Shouguang base of Chenming Paper started operation, and the base will fully resume full - load production capacity [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 12, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 660 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 77.42%; the basis of Russian Needle was 180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year increase of 410.34%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.63% [15]. - On September 12, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 288 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.27%; the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 10 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 66.67% [15][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,470 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% and a year - on - year increase of 19.51%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 990 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 23.75% [27]. - On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 208 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 46.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98%; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 3 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46.22% and a year - on - year increase of 99.50% [30]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood in the Shandong market were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [32]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird in the Shandong market were 4,180 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,170 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [37]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported natural pulp and chemi - thermomechanical pulp such as Venus and Kunhe in the Shandong market were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of year - on - year changes [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of paper enterprises in East China were generally stable, and the purchase price of poplar wood chips of Champion Paper continued to decline [42]. - The supply of domestic broad - leaf pulp increased this week. On September 11, 2025, the weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 133,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19.82% [46][48]. - In July 2025, the port inventory in Europe decreased slightly month - on - month; in June, the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was lower year - on - year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year; in July, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month; in August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Chile to China decreased month - on - month [55]. - In July 2025, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, and Uruguay to China continued to be at a year - on - year high and increased month - on - month; in August, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguay to China increased significantly month - on - month [57]. - In July 2025, China's pulp import volume decreased overall, with coniferous pulp decreasing by 4.64% month - on - month and broad - leaf pulp decreasing by 5.84% month - on - month [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - For offset paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production increased slightly, supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and the market was bearish [65]. - For coated paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production changed little, supply was abundant, consumption was difficult to improve, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [69]. - For white cardboard, both supply and demand increased, paper mills' production and sales were relatively balanced, prices increased, and the market improved [73]. - For household paper, the market price was flat, demand was weak, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and the industry's operating rate remained low [77]. - In July 2025, the retail sales in the terminal demand areas of pulp weakened seasonally month - on - month. The year - on - year growth of cultural office and daily necessities was significant, while the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines and the output of dairy products decreased year - on - year [81]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 245,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.53% [84]. - The port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a narrow de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory increased slightly, and Changshu Port's inventory decreased [93]. 3.4 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased for the second consecutive month, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% to 2.653 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 24.108 million tons, still a 5.0% year - on - year increase. The supply remained abundant. The shipment volume from Brazil to China in August was 647,300 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 21.5% but a year - on - year increase of 55.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 20.3%. The foreign market quotation was firm, and the cost - side support was strengthened [96]. - Demand: The performance of downstream demand in the peak season was disappointing, lacking traditional peak - season characteristics. In general, the terminal consumption capacity of the paper industry did not improve, and the demand side had a "buy - on - dips" mentality, providing limited support to the pulp market [96]. - Viewpoint: After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [97]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Try to go long on contracts 01 and 05 on dips; Inter - period: Consider converting the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage to a positive arbitrage; Inter - variety: No strategy [98].