铁矿石周度观点-20250914

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The demand expectation still provides support, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to the high - level maintenance of both supply and demand, and sufficient pricing of macro - level positive factors, along with seasonal demand support from steel mills [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Weekly Viewpoint - The supply side shows that Brazilian Vale's shipments have significantly declined due to port maintenance, and non - mainstream shipments are also weak; the demand side indicates that blast furnace operations have quickly recovered, and the raw material demand expectation remains strong; macro - level factors suggest that the market may have fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectation, and there is still some macro support for commodity valuations. Overall, the iron ore price may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 799.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 543,000 lots (an increase of 41,800 lots). The average daily trading volume was 345,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices were relatively strong, but the price increase of medium - grade PB powder was relatively narrow. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased from 900 to 920 yuan/ton, and the price of PB powder increased from 782 to 794 yuan/ton [11] Iron Ore Supply Side Mainstream Mines - Brazilian port maintenance led to a sharp drop in shipments, and mainstream shipments declined. For example, Brazil's weekly shipments decreased by 509.1 million tons compared to the previous week, and Australia's decreased by 320 million tons [4] Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream shipments also had a phased decline [20] Domestic Mines - The operation in North China has recovered, and the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has been revised upwards [26] Iron Ore Demand Side Downstream - Pig iron production has rapidly recovered, and the port's imported iron ore clearance volume may increase seasonally, with expectations of downstream restocking demand [29] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - Scrap steel arrivals increased again on a week - on - week basis. The scrap - pig iron price difference stopped falling after reaching a recent low [30] Iron Ore Inventory - The port inventory level has been relatively stable recently [32][34] Downstream Profits - Downstream operations have quickly recovered, and profits are oscillating at a low level [37] Spot Category Price Difference - The price of medium - grade PB powder has been relatively weak. The high - medium grade price difference has continued to strengthen, and the medium - low grade price difference has continued to narrow [39][40] Futures Contract Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread reached a phased high (24.5) and then declined [44] Basis Performance - Both futures and spot prices were strong, and the overall basis level has been relatively stable [48]