国泰君安期货锡周报-20250914

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices were volatile, closing at 274,160 yuan/ton on Friday. Fundamentally, the overseas LME structure declined significantly to -34.98 dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium also dropped to 250 yuan/ton, indicating a simultaneous weakening of domestic and foreign supply and demand. Social inventories increased, with overseas LME inventories rising by 300 tons and domestic inventories by 108 tons. In terms of tin ingot production, the weekly operating rate dropped significantly to 28% due to maintenance at Yunnan enterprises such as Yunnan Tin, but due to sufficient enterprise inventories, it may not actually affect the market supply of tin ingots. Macroscopically, this week's non - farm payroll data was poor, leading to concerns about overseas economic performance and a decline in risk appetite. It is believed that tin prices will face downward pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Spot: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was -34.98 dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 250 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [10][15]. - Spread: This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19]. - Inventory: This week, domestic social inventories increased by 108 tons, and futures inventories decreased by 79 tons. LME inventories increased by 390 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 7.06% [25][30]. - Capital: As of this Friday, the precipitated capital for Shanghai tin was 162.85 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [35]. - Transaction and Position: This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the position increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the position continued to decline [37][43]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [48]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - Tin Ore: In May 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 5,961 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.56%; in July 2025, the import volume was 10,278 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 32.32%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The profitability of tin ore imports increased slightly [52][53]. - Smelting: In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces dropped significantly to 28% [58][60]. - Import: In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,167 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and the net imports were 393 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 812 tons. The latest import profitability was -16,622 yuan/ton [67]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Use Consumption) - Consumption Volume: In July 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 16,434 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,572 tons [75]. - Tin Products: This week, the downstream processing fees decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in April decreased slightly. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in May decreased slightly [78]. - End - Use Consumption: In July 2025, the end - use production performance varied. The performance of household appliances was weak, generally showing a month - on - month decline. The production of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer systems decreased month - on - month and was at a historically low level. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of tin prices [85][87][92].