工业硅：逢高布空思路为主，多晶硅：关注下周市场消息变动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon should be shorted on rallies, with a trading strategy of shorting at high prices and taking profits at low prices, not holding positions for the long - term. The expected price range for next week is 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Polysilicon is policy - driven. Attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company. The expected price range for next week is 50000 - 55000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long close to the spot price [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon futures prices first declined and then rose, with spot prices increasing. The Friday closing price was 8745 yuan/ton. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan week - on - week), and the Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon price was 8900 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan week - on - week) [2]. - Polysilicon futures prices declined and adjusted. The Friday closing price was 53610 yuan/ton. The upstream spot price remained firm, and downstream buyers made small - scale replenishments [2]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply - Side - The weekly industry inventory increased slightly. The production in Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia increased, while that in the Southwest remained stable. The overall weekly production increased marginally. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 million tons, the social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.32 million tons [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand - Side - The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. In the short term, the weekly polysilicon production remained high, and there were plans for polysilicon factories to resume production next month. The weekly production of organic silicon increased slightly, but there were expectations of self - disciplined production cuts. The aluminum alloy sector had rigid demand, and the export market remained stable [4]. 4. Polysilicon Supply - Side - The short - term weekly production remained high. In September, some factories cut production, but some second - and third - tier factories resumed production. The estimated production in September was about 125,000 tons. There were also plans for some factories to resume production in October. The upstream inventory began to accumulate [4]. 5. Polysilicon Demand - Side - After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, the production increased. The short - term silicon wafer inventory was relatively low, and the overseas battery export demand was good. The silicon wafer enterprises had replenished stocks for 3 months, and there may be no large - scale replenishment in the short term [6]. 6. Trading Strategies - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short on rallies, with a price range of 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton next week [7][9]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to go long close to the spot price, with a price range of 50000 - 55000 yuan/ton next week [8][9]. - For cross - period trading, consider a reverse spread for PS2511/PS2512 [10]. - It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging, and downstream silicon wafer factories conduct long - hedging [10].