全球大类资产配置周观察：美联储降息来临，全球资产风险偏好回升

Global Macro Overview - The report highlights the expectation of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle within the year, driven by recent economic data indicating a cooling labor market and manageable inflation levels [2][4][14] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to weaken the US dollar, benefiting non-US assets, particularly emerging markets and high-yield assets, thereby enhancing global risk appetite [2][4][14] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached a historical high of $3,674 per ounce before experiencing fluctuations, driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical risks [5][7] - The report notes that while oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production adjustments, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to global economic slowdown [12][14] Bond Market - US Treasury yields have shown volatility, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields declining, influenced by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [14][15] - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market is experiencing upward pressure on yields due to regulatory changes and market sentiment, although there is potential for long-term yield declines if the Fed cuts rates as expected [18][21] Currency Market - The US dollar index is expected to trend downward, influenced by the Fed's anticipated rate cuts and weakening economic indicators [23][24] - The euro is projected to strengthen against the dollar, supported by stable economic conditions in the Eurozone despite political uncertainties [24] - The report suggests that the British pound may benefit from interest rate differentials if the Fed cuts rates while the Bank of England maintains higher rates [27] Equity Market - Global equity markets have generally risen, reflecting increased risk appetite due to the Fed's rate cut expectations, with notable gains in Asian markets [34][35] - The report emphasizes that while US tech stocks may continue to show resilience, high valuations and economic slowdown risks could lead to potential corrections [37]