国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250914

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Short - term: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Pay attention to the positive impact of inventory reduction in China on SC crude oil [6]. - Medium - to - long - term: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: Global crude oil supply shows the characteristic of "incremental release but limited actual increase". OPEC+ plans to gradually lift a 1.65 million - barrel - per - day production cut starting from October, with an initial increase of 137,000 barrels per day, but the actual increase may be only 70,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ supply, such as US shale oil, is expected to decline by 150,000 barrels per day next year due to low oil prices. Geopolitical risks also disrupt supply [6]. - Demand: Global crude oil demand presents a "structurally differentiated" situation. China's demand growth engine weakens, while India, Southeast Asia, and Africa become new growth points. Overall, the demand side faces challenges of "slowing total growth and reconstructing category demand" [7]. - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see; long - term, there is a large downward pressure on oil prices. Strategies include unilateral wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, holding light - position positive spreads (buy SC11, sell SC12), and potential reversals in EFS spreads and SC - Dubai spreads [8]. Macro - Monitor the Fed's interest rate cuts as the gold - to - oil ratio has soared again. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [14][15][20]. Supply - OPEC+ Core Members: Many OPEC+ members have different supply situations. For example, Iraq's production is limited, while the UAE aims for higher export quotas. Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced its official selling prices for Asia in October. There are also supply disruptions in Russia due to attacks on refineries [10]. - Non - OPEC+: The US shale oil production is expected to decline next year. Brazil, Guyana, and other regions have supply increases. There are also various geopolitical and supply - related issues in other countries [11]. Demand - Regional Demand: China's demand shows a complex situation with a decline in gasoline demand due to high electric vehicle penetration but an increase in petrochemical raw material demand. India's demand rebounds after the monsoon season. European diesel demand remains weak, while North American demand declines due to the popularity of hybrid vehicles [12]. - Refinery开工率: US and European refinery operating rates are seasonally declining, while the operating rates of major refineries and independent refineries in China are rising [59]. Inventory - US: US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories are stable, but the latter is significantly lower than the historical average. - Europe: European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are decreasing. - China: Domestic refined oil profit margins are falling [62][67][69]. Price and Spreads - Basis: North American basis is oscillating. - Calendar Spreads: Calendar spreads have a slight rebound. - SC vs. Overseas Markets: SC is stronger than overseas markets, and its calendar spreads are rebounding. - Net Long Positions: Net long positions are declining [73][74][77].