国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250914

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of mainstream delivery products of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of September 7, there were 10 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 6 going to mainland China and 4 going to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port decreased by 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 0.67 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. - As of the week of September 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [6]. - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 decreased by 1.1% compared to last week, and the monthly spread tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - The prices of mainstream radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 745 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 765 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 850 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 785 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 7, 10 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 6 bound for mainland China and 4 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea. It is expected that 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - Provided the specific shipping schedule data of New Zealand logs, including departure time, load, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.68 million cubic meters (down 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.12 million cubic meters (down 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week) [6][12]. - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1279 million cubic meters (down 0.0224 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port's was about 0.4407 million cubic meters (up 0.0111 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou Port's was about 0.3726 million cubic meters (up 0.0216 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port's was about 0.1021 million cubic meters (down 0.017 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0433 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0067 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 798 yuan/cubic meter, a 1.1% decrease from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 11 - 01 monthly spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 11 - 03 at - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 at - 6 yuan/cubic meter [18]. Price and Spread - Provided the spot price data of logs and downstream construction timber, showing that most prices remained stable compared to last week [21][23]. - Presented the regional price differences of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [24][26]. - Showed the price differences between different tree species and specifications, such as the difference between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [38][39]. Other - Analyzed other price - influencing factors, including freight rates and exchange rates. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [52][53].