固收周度点评：风浪未平，留一份谨慎-20250914

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market adjustment risk may not be fully released, especially the ultra-long bond yields may not have reached their peak, and the upward pressure will also be transmitted to other maturities. It is recommended to continue controlling portfolio positions and durations and avoid premature optimism [4][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Bond Market Review: Yields "Searching for a Peak" Again - In the first half of the week, pessimism in the bond market spread again due to the adjustment of fund fees, and the previous perceived 1.80% level for the 10Y Treasury yield was smoothly breached. In the second half of the week, expectations of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, and yields recovered [1][6]. - From Monday to Wednesday, bond yields generally rose, with the 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields reaching new highs. On Thursday, the bond market stopped falling and recovered, and on Friday, it continued to recover. Compared with September 5th, as of September 12th, the 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y ChinaBond Treasury yields increased by 0.4BP, 0.2BP, 4.1BP, and 7.2BP respectively [6][7][8]. 2. Why Did the Decline Deepen? The Buying Power Could Not Offset the Selling Pressure from Trading Accounts - The key reason is that the buying power of the allocation accounts is limited, while the trading accounts have the space and incentive to sell. Specifically, large banks may face pressure from interest rate risk indicator assessments after continuously purchasing ultra-long government bonds, which restricts their ability to buy in the secondary market [2][15]. - City commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and insurance companies also lack the ability to buy, resulting in the absence of allocation accounts in the bond market. Meanwhile, the fund sentiment was affected by the fee adjustment, and the position adjustment by funds in late August provided room for selling [3][16][27]. 3. Looking Ahead, the Storm Is Not Over, and the Ultra-Long Bond Yields Have No Clear Peak - The supply-demand mismatch in ultra-long bonds persists, and there may be no short-term solution. Even if the central bank restarts bond purchases in the fourth quarter, the targets are not expected to be long or ultra-long bonds. Attention should be paid to the end of the quarter when large banks may sell long and ultra-long bonds to meet interest rate risk assessment requirements [33]. - The movement of deposits from banks to non-banks is ongoing and may accelerate in the fourth quarter. High-interest deposits that flowed into banks during the "redemption wave" at the end of 2022 may mature this year, which could lead to a further shift of funds [34]. - Banks may have a greater need to sell old bonds to realize floating profits in the fourth quarter. Due to the impact of the bond market on bank investment income in September - October last year, the pressure to sell bonds to realize profits may be greater in the fourth quarter [39].