Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The adjustment of the bond market is mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and the change in the macro - narrative. Considering the desensitization of stocks and bonds since late August and the entry into the window period of August economic data, it is expected that the trading mainline of the bond market will shift to the fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term after an over - decline [2][3][12] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the draft for soliciting opinions on the new regulations for fund sales fees was released, leading to an increase in the redemption volume of some bond funds and a certain negative feedback in the bond market. In addition, inflation in August was still low, financial data was weak, and the capital side tightened marginally. The central bank announced a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase. The ultra - long bonds tumbled throughout the week and rebounded slightly on Friday. In terms of trading volume, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly last week and was very active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of September 12, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 32BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy in July still faced downward pressure, with the estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate in July at about 4.3%, a significant decline from the growth rate in the first half of this year. In terms of inflation, the CPI in August was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9%, indicating the existence of deflation risks. The current bond market decline features stable short - term bonds and an enlarged term spread. The bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][12] - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of September 12, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low position. Similar to the situation of 30 - year Treasury bonds, the domestic economy faced downward pressure in July, and deflation risks existed. The bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [3][13] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeds 23.3 trillion yuan. As of August 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 23.3878 trillion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.9% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra - long bonds. By variety, Treasury bonds account for 26.9%, local government bonds 67.3%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week. From September 8 to 12, 2025, a total of 200.6 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased significantly. By variety, Treasury bonds were 35 billion yuan, local government bonds 145.6 billion yuan, etc. By term, 14 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 44.6 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, etc. [19] This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 224.2 billion yuan. By variety, ultra - long Treasury bonds are 117 billion yuan, ultra - long local government bonds 97.2 billion yuan, and ultra - long financial bonds 10 billion yuan [21] Secondary Market Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds was 1.2793 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.6% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds was 1.0486 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.9% of the total Treasury bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term local bonds was 213.3 billion yuan, accounting for 49.0% of the total local bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term policy - financial bonds was 10.6 billion yuan, accounting for 0.4% of the total policy - financial bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long - term government agency bonds was 700 million yuan, accounting for 32.6% of the total government agency bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly last week [24][25] Yield - Due to the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the new regulations for fund sales fees and other factors, the ultra - long bonds tumbled throughout the week and rebounded slightly on Friday. For Treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 9BP, 8BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively to 2.07%, 2.18%, 2.18%, and 2.22%. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 11BP, 9BP, 7BP, and 5BP respectively to 2.16%, 2.22%, 2.26%, and 2.40%. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 8BP, 10BP, and 10BP respectively to 2.30%, 2.36%, and 2.36%. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 7BP, 7BP, and 5BP respectively to 2.24%, 2.26%, and 2.38% [33] Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 32BP, a change of 4BP compared with the previous week, at the 14% quantile since 2010 [40] - Variety Spread: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, with an absolute low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds was 4BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds was 8BP, changing by 0BP and - 3BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 6% and 5% quantiles since 2010 [46] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.27 yuan, with a decline of 0.93%. The total trading volume of 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 417,000 lots (- 355,481 lots), and the open interest was 160,600 lots (17,947 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [51]
超长债周报:6月社融同比转为回落,超长债量升价跌-20250914
Guoxin Securities·2025-09-14 07:53